The NFL playoff picture is set and while it took some twists and turns to get here, most of the teams are no surprise to be in the field. What could be a surprise will come next when we have weaker top teams than in years past, and many of these playoff contenders have limped to the finish line. In fact, it's not far fetched to say that every team in the playoff picture has a glaring weakness, the question is can anyone take advantage of those, while masking their own inadequacies.
The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens gained the #1 seeds and with the new NFL format, they get the only bye in this year's field. They also get home field advantage throughout. Both of these teams have been steamrolling for much of the season and are rightfully sitting as the favorites to win the title. The Niners come in at +230 to win it all, while the Ravens are +330 to lift the Lomardi trophy. With that said a pessimist can point to Brock Purdy's ugly performance just a few weeks ago, against this Baltimore team, to see that San Fran is not unbeatable. While history, and Lamar Jackson's playoff failures should give everyone pause before backing the truck up to jump on them to win it all.
The Bills made the playoffs after a tough stretch and despite going into Sunday with a chance to be eliminated from playoff contention they still are the second slimest odds in the AFC at 8 to 1 to win the championship. Their deficiencies are well documented, but they might just be the most dangerous team, with the most dangerous QB, in the playoffs. Miami sat atop the AFC East for much of the season, but with a pretty weak record against teams over .500 their 13 to 1 odds to win the chip aren't making too many bettors excited. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can never be discounted, but while they have some major holes this season, they still won the AFC West ... again, and now sit with a tempting +900 line to repeat as champions. If you like an underdog story you don't have to look any further than Joe Flacco and the Browns. Cleveland lost their star QB, RB, and had to call up Joe off the couch. But, his championship pedigree and dominant defense have people looking at that 34 to 1 number with a sharp eye. The Texans will be a favorite bet for the public because of their young gun slinger CJ Stroud, but going through the AFC gauntlet seems like a tall task while Pittsburgh has huge odds and a winning coach, they will be without their best player in TJ Watt and that's a lot to ask for even the most die hard Steelers fan.
Over in the NFC it has seemed like it's been the Niners championship to lose for a while, but they are dangers out there. Dallas finally won on the road, and their offense led by Dak and Lamb put fear into all the defensive coordinators in the league. They sit at +750 with the 3rd shortest odds to win the title. Philly would love to get back to where they came up just short last year, but they have limped (literally with AJ Brown limping off the field) to the finish line. If you believe in what you watched in the first half of the season then 13 to 1 odds seem like a gift, but if you're basing your assessment of the Eagles off of the past month, that gift is like coal in a stocking. The Lions will be a popular bet because they are a fun and exciting team with lots of weapons. At +1700 they have some good value as well, but talk to any Detroit fan and they will inevitably bring up the fact that the Motor City has won 1 playoff game in their lifetime, seemingly no matter how old they are. Tampa Bay won the division after beating Carolina 9-0 Sunday and Baker Mayfield is a feel good story, but even at 75 to 1 odds they don't seem like a smart bet. The same can be said for Green Bay, who comes in with the same odds. Maybe Sean McVay and Matt Stafford have one more run in them? At +5500 they certainly have some good looking odds, but you still have to trust that sub par defense.
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