My early thinking on the Big Game centers around the belief that I have that both of these defenses will steal the show. The Seahawks have allowed just 68 points in their last seven games that were not against the Stafford–McVay Rams, while the Patriots’ run defense has allowed 87, 79, and 48 rushing yards in their last three games. Seattle and New England allowed an average of just 17.1 and 17.3 points per game this season, respectively. That points me toward plenty of under action on props, with only a few carefully selected overs. Traditionally, the public loves overs, and that trend becomes even more pronounced during the Super Bowl. Casual bettors gravitate toward overs because they are fun to root for, which usually means the prices are inflated. I am willing to be contrarian here.
With that said, I cannot ignore one offensive prop I really like: TreVeyon Henderson at -220 to have more rushing yards than Sam Darnold. Henderson has recorded 25 or more rushing yards in two of three playoff games and failed to reach that mark in only three games all season. Darnold, meanwhile, has not topped 25 rushing yards in any game this year, has exceeded nine yards just four times, and has not done so in the past six games.
If you want another rushing angle, Kenneth Walker’s longest rush over 14.5 yards is worth a look. Walker has hit that number in four of his last five games and in 12 games this season. I also like both kickers to make over 1.5 field goals, as this shapes up as a field-position battle.
Tackles and assists are popular props as well. Ernest Jones over 8.5 tackles and Christian Gonzalez over five tackles stand out. Jones will be tasked with slowing a strong run game, while Gonzalez is likely to shadow Jaxon Smith-Njigba and should see plenty of action.
My favorite bet, though, is the least exciting: over seven total punts. Seattle’s Michael Dickson and New England’s Bryce Baringer have both been extremely busy. Everything points to a tight, defensive game. Enjoy the props, and remember defense and special teams can be just as fun to bet as points.