There is an old saying that the house always wins and sometimes in sports betting that feels like every week. But, this past week was especially bad for the public. Sports book directors were quoted as calling week 2 in the NFL "a bloodbath for the customers" and "our best week in years".
The public was destroyed this past week and it was not only beat on straight bets but parlays, teasers, and even survivor pools were wiped out after only two weeks of action. The Ravens, Cowboys, Lions, and Chiefs all failed to cover, and all of them were 6 point or better favorites. The only 6 point underdog who was favorable for the public was Chicago, who pushed in most books.
Now as we enter week #3 we have to begin asking ourselves some important questions and keep an eye on if the books will move the lines because of their answers. Do we believe in the Saints? New Orleans isn't just 2-0, they are by far the best offense in football right now. The Saints have scored on every possession this season with Derek Carr as their QB. That is 15 possessions and 15 scores. This week they are ... underdogs at home.
The Ravens are 0-2 and just dropped a game where they had a 10 point lead, at home, late in the game to a career backup QB. They are the road favorites.
Then there are the 2-0 Buccaneers, who just went into the house of one of the NFL's Super Bowl hopeful Lions and won with a banged up secondary. They return home and are under a TD favorite against a rookie QB and a 0-2 team who failed to score a touchdown last week.
Finally, we get to the biggest question mark team, and game on the board this Thursday. The Jets face off against the Patriots. New England has shocked people with how they have played so far. The Pats sit at 1-1 but their loss to Seattle in OT showed their week 1 win wasn't a fluke. That was over a Bengals team that barely lost to Patrick Mahomes and company in Arrowhead. New England's defense looks like they are for real, but can their offense keep running on everyone? The Jets have questions of their own, namely their coaching decisions. The vaunted Jets defense has looked like Swiss cheese at times this season and they have been run on heavily. Yet, the Jets are a touchdown favorite.
In order for the public to win back some of their week 2 money we have to get into the heads of the bookmakers and when things make you say hmmm, more times than not it's for a reason. Be cautious this weekend because we don't want the books celebrating after another bloodbath week.