It's October, which for most people means pumpkin spice, Han Solo-looking outfits, and the changing of the leaves, but for baseball fans, it means the playoffs.
For sports bettors, it means something entirely different. 'Tis the season to bet on the bullpens. That's right, while most of the sports world is hoping for lots of offense and those late-inning heroics, the smart sports bettor is betting against those kind of things happening and betting on the new way that teams are designed.
Specialty relievers have taken over the game, and while in the past a dominant starter was all anyone was craving, this is now a baseball world where bullpens rule the day and it gets even more exasperated in the postseason. Consider that of the four remaining teams in the playoffs, two used what could only be described as an "opener" approach while the Tigers also went with that theory.
So, how do sports bettors take advantage of this? In game wagering. That's right, as soon as you see the call to the bullpen, take a look at the total and where it sits. In most cases, the public will drive the line up thinking that their team will make a comeback or someone big is on the way to the plate, when the numbers will show the bullpens have been downright dominant.
The Yankees bullpen allowed 1 run in 4 innings in game one against the Royals. They held the Royals scoreless for 5 1/3 in game two. Game three, it was much of the same holding them scoreless through 4 1/3 and they allowed nothing in two innings in the closeout game 4. So overall the pinstripes allowed 1 bullpen run in almost 14 innings of work this postseason.
The same can be said for the Dodgers who were brilliant out of their bullpen against San Diego. Los Angeles allowed just 3 bullpen runs in almost 29 innings. That was highlighted by their "opener" game where they shut out the Friars over 9 innings.
The Guardians came into the playoffs with the most imposing bullpen and the best closer we have watched since Mariano Rivera. Ironically, Clase skews their stats a little as he allowed 3 runs in an outing, but even with that, the Guardians bullpen still allowed just 8 runs in just under 27 innings. That leaves them with an under 3 ERA.
The Mets took a similar path, albeit not as impressive as they allowed 11 runs in 25 innings of relief work, but that includes a Phil Maton and Edwin Diaz blow-up inning.
So, back to the in-game wagering. Out of 94 bullpen innings this postseason between the teams remaining, their arms allowed just 23 runs. That is good for a 2.18 ERA. To take it even further in 7 of 18 games that the bullpens entered, they held the other team completely scoreless. In 11 of the 18, they held the offenses to just a single run, and they never allowed more than 3 runs.
So, enjoy the games as the postseason moves on but remember to jump on those in-game unders, because while everyone wants to see that great comeback or big-time swing to tie the game, us sports bettors are betting on the bullpens, and it has paid off nicely.