The International Fallacy


NY Giants | @Giants | X

The National Football League schedule release has grown into one of the biggest offseason events in sports, and for sports bettors, it has become almost as important as the games themselves. Fans and bettors alike immediately begin searching for favorable stretches, difficult travel spots, rest advantages, and potential betting value the moment the schedules are announced.

This year, fans of the New York Giants quickly noticed something that sparked excitement across social media and betting circles. The Giants are scheduled to face three different teams coming off international travel during the 2026 season, leading many to believe New York could have a major scheduling advantage.

The first of those matchups comes in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams after the Rams open their season in Australia. Then, in Week 5, the Giants will host division rival Washington Commanders following Washington’s trip to London. Finally, in Week 7, New York takes on the Houston Texans after Houston plays the Jacksonville Jaguars overseas in London the week before.

At first glance, these look like ideal situations for the Giants. Many bettors immediately assume teams returning from long international flights will struggle with fatigue, preparation, or jet lag. However, history suggests that blindly betting against teams coming back from overseas travel may not be the smartest approach.

In fact, recent trends tell a very different story. Teams returning from international games have actually won 11 of their last 16 games the following week and posted an 8-7 record against the spread. Rather than looking sluggish, many of these teams have performed quite well after returning home.

There are several possible explanations. NFL franchises now travel with luxury charter planes, advanced recovery technology, and carefully planned schedules designed to minimize the effects of long-distance travel. Teams also often stay overseas longer to better acclimate themselves and recover before returning home.

Because of that, the old belief that international travel automatically creates a betting disadvantage may no longer hold true. In fact, if the public continues to overreact to those travel spots, there could actually be value in backing the teams returning from overseas rather than fading them.

As always in sports betting, perception and reality do not always match — and schedule quirks can sometimes create opportunities where bettors least expect them.

Organizations Included in this History


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The International Fallacy

The National Football League schedule release has grown into one of the biggest offseason events in sports, and for sports bettors, it has become almost as important as the games themselves. Fans and bettors alike immediately begin searching for favorable stretches, difficult travel spots, rest advantages, and potential betting value the moment the schedules are announced.