The Buffalo Bills were what fans expected under Josh Allen in Week 3’s Thursday night matchup, and for sports bettors, it looks like more of the same is in store this week.
The Bills handled business against Miami, winning 31-21 behind another MVP-level performance from Allen. His ability to extend plays, carve up defenses, and consistently deliver in high-leverage situations once again proved decisive. While fans reveled in the victory, bettors recognized that Buffalo’s familiar patterns — both positive and negative — were once again on full display, and those same trends figure heavily into the outlook against New Orleans.
The Bills return home to Orchard Park this week, where Allen and his offense tend to light up the scoreboard. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in all three games this season, but their home dominance is even more striking. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in nine of their last ten regular season games at home, with the lone exception being a 24-point effort in a win over New England last December. That game still extended their home regular season winning streak, which now stands at 13 straight, dating back to November 13th, 2023. In 11 of those 13 victories, Buffalo crossed the 30-point threshold, cementing their status as one of the league’s most explosive and reliable home teams.
Death, taxes, and the Bills scoring 30 at home. Oddsmakers recognize the trend, which is why the team total was set at 31 last week against Miami, landing right on the number. This week against the Saints, the line is nearly identical, suggesting another offensive showcase filled with fireworks, tempo, and highlight-worthy moments that Allen seems to generate with uncanny regularity.
But while Buffalo’s offensive fireworks thrill fans, sharp bettors see another story: the Bills’ struggles as heavy favorites. Buffalo has now gone 0-9 against the spread as a double-digit favorite in their last nine contests. Elite teams often face inflated lines in the betting market, and the Bills are no exception. That was the case against Miami, when they again failed to cover. With the Saints arriving as two-touchdown underdogs, public money is once more pushing the line upward, creating a potentially tricky betting landscape for those looking to back the Bills.