Betting and the Super Bowl have always been hand in hand in the American lexicon, but this Sunday there will be no greater example of how far the sports betting world has come than the city of Las Vegas hosting it's very first Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs, or as most publications and media will now present the game ... the San Francisco 49ers are a 2 point favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs, with a total set at 47 1/2.
That's how quickly sports betting has become main stream. This week you will hear ex-athletes, media personalities, and those who just years ago lamented the sports betting subject, be overly boisterous about the lines, the props and everything in between. The Super Bowl has always been a public bettor’s dream, and this year is no different.
The Chiefs come into this game with all eyes on their power three, or possibly a power four this year. Head Coach Andy Reid, star QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kelce and Swift couple have captivated the world, and notice I didn't say the sports world. The Chiefs have been a model of excellence over the past half of a decade and now they become the third team with four Super Bowl appearances. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are being pushed into 'the greatest ever' territory, while Andy Reid is making himself a part of that conversation as well. This Chiefs team though is pretty different than the championship teams they have had in the past few years. This team is now built on defense and an effective rushing attack. The Chiefs have allowed 28 points or less in all 20 games this season. That is the most in NFL history. The 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers all finished with 19 games and all of those previous teams won the Super Bowl. This is a good time to mention that 75% of bets are on the Over 47 1/2 and the Chiefs are 6-14 to the over this season.
Don't think it's all just defense though for the Chiefs. Since the playoffs began they seem to have found their offensive groove. Isiah Pacheco is running wild and the big two are still slinging the ball all over the place. Mahomes saves his best for the postseason and that should be of no surprise to anyone. Patrick Mahomes has played in 17 postseason games, essentially a full season. Over that span here is 14-3 with a 67.4% completion percentage, 4,802 passing yards, 458 rushing yards, 39 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, and just 7 INTs. His prop plays are all very elevated, as we expected, but his running mate might hold some value. Travis Kelce also steps his game up when the postseason arrives. Travis Kelce's receiving yards prop is set at 69 1/2. Kelce has gone over this in 12 straight playoff games with five of those games 100+ yards and nine of them at 95+ yards. In fact the last time Kelce finished with less than 71 receiving yards is Super Bowl 54 vs. these Niners.
That brings us to the favorites, in a game where they feel like doubted underdogs. The San Francisco 49ers opened the season as the favorites to win the big game and they did not disappoint this year. There were some major question marks about their star quarterback and the hope was his elite supporting cast could carry the team. Brock Purdy proved to be much more than a game manager. Although Brock Purdy's 4 year contract of just over $3.7 million dollars is less than what Patrick Mahomes's rookie card just sold for ($4.5 million), Purdy has proved every doubter wrong this year. For much of the year the signal caller was among the league MVP leaders finishing 5th in the league in passing yards, 3rd in TD passes and 1st overall in QBR. He is listed with the second lowest odds to win the game's MVP, offering little value there, and it was his legs that actually carried the Niners to a victory last week. The book makers have set his passing yards total at only 242 yards, a number he has cleared in 6 of his last 7 games, so maybe there is some value there.
While Purdy is the feel good story there is little argument that the best non-QB in the league is Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is likely to win the leagues Offensive Player of the Year award and he has been the best RB in football for the past few years. When he was traded to the Niners and paired with Kyle Shannahan the league went on notice, and he has lived up to every expectation. This season he finished the year first in yards, 2nd in carries, and led the league in overall touchdowns. The offense goes through him and we have watched the one soft spot for this Chiefs defense is rushing the ball right at them. They rank in the lower 3rd in the NFL. McCaffrey has some elevated prop numbers, but they might not be able to set it high enough. His 90 1/2 rushing yards is 25 yards more than the next player and some books have him to score a TD in the game set as high as -400. Perhaps his receiving numbers are the more alluring bet or maybe we go against the grain and take his fullback Kyle Juszcyk to go over 1/2 receiving yards. After all he has gone over 30 yards in two games vs KC and over 20 yards in 4 of his last 6 games.
This year's Super Bowl will be enjoyed by NFL fans and non fans alike. Swifties will make sure of that, as will the party crowd and the people who just like the commercials. As sports fans we invite them all and anticipate a really fun game. With that said as a sports betters we have to be cautious about the Super Bowl market. The public not only influences lines in the big game more than any other time of year, but now with legalized betting across so many states even prop plays are impacted. This is the year to do a little more research, a little more digging and think outside the box to make some Super Bowl money.