The Final Four is officially set, and while the matchups are drawing plenty of excitement, one storyline continues to stand out—oddsmakers still don’t seem fully convinced by the remarkable run of Danny Hurley and the UConn Huskies.
On one side of the bracket, a true heavyweight battle awaits as the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines square off in a No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup. Arizona enters as a slight 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 157.5. That line reflects what most analysts believe—this game is essentially a toss-up. Michigan has been on a scoring tear, putting up 90 or more points in every tournament game so far, while Arizona’s defense has been just as impressive, holding three of its four opponents to 66 points or fewer.
But it’s the other semifinal that has bettors talking.
Despite their recent dominance, UConn enters as a 2.5-point underdog against the Illinois Fighting Illini. That brings the spotlight right back to Hurley, who has built a reputation as one of the most reliable coaches in March—not just for winning games, but for covering the spread.
Hurley’s recent tournament record is nothing short of incredible. Over his last 18 NCAA Tournament games, he is 17-1 straight up—and remarkably, 17-1 against the spread. The Huskies captured national championships in 2023 and 2024, narrowly missed another run in 2025 with a two-point loss to the eventual champion, and now find themselves back in the Final Four after knocking off the tournament’s top overall seed in a thrilling comeback as a 6.5-point underdog.
It’s the kind of sustained success that places Hurley among the elite coaching runs in college basketball history. Yet, the betting markets remain cautious. Early action shows Illinois drawing nearly 60 percent of the bets, signaling that the public still sees this matchup as a tight contest.
And that may be fair. On paper, this looks like a physical, hard-fought game that could go either way. But history suggests one thing: betting against Hurley this time of year has been a risky proposition.
As the Final Four tips off, all eyes will be on whether UConn can keep its run alive—and whether the “Hurley magic” continues to defy expectations.