The opening weekend of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament has long been known for its chaos, upsets, and unforgettable Cinderella stories. But this year, a different narrative took center stage — one that has many fans and analysts wondering if those magical underdog runs are becoming a thing of the past.
For the second consecutive year, teams seeded No. 1 through No. 4 went a perfect 16–0 in the first round. While that may not seem shocking on the surface, the historical context tells a different story. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, this has only happened seven times — and never in back-to-back years until now. It is a striking shift for a tournament that has built its reputation on unpredictability.
Even more telling, there were no wins by double-digit seeds in the opening round. To find a similar occurrence, you have to go all the way back to 1992. For fans accustomed to buzzer-beaters and bracket-busting surprises, the lack of drama was noticeable. Many of the games were decided early, with top-seeded teams dominating from start to finish.
In fact, 13 of the 32 first-round games were decided by 20 points or more. Several higher-seeded teams not only covered large betting spreads but did so comfortably, often pushing scores into triple digits. The gap between the top programs and lower-seeded teams was difficult to ignore, and at times, the matchups lacked the competitive balance that typically defines March basketball.
Much of this shift is being attributed to the evolving landscape of college sports, particularly the influence of Name, Image, and Likeness opportunities and the transfer portal. With top talent increasingly concentrated among powerhouse programs, mid-major teams are finding it harder to retain the players needed to build Cinderella-caliber runs.
The trend is also forcing a shift in how fans and bettors approach the tournament. Traditional strategies centered around early-round upsets may need to be reconsidered. Instead, backing favorites, targeting team total overs, and recognizing the dominance of top-tier programs could offer more consistent results in today’s game.
While the idea of Cinderella may not be completely gone, it is certainly facing new challenges. For now, the glass slipper appears harder to find — and far less likely to fit.