The stage is set for Super Bowl 2026, as fans will get a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX with the Seahawks facing the Patriots. The opening line, released immediately after Seattle’s conference championship win, listed the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites. Within the first hour, it was difficult to find many bettors willing to back New England. That reaction may have been quick, but the betting market reflected the same sentiment. Shortly thereafter, the line moved to minus four, and by midnight it had been bet up to minus five.
There was some belief that East Coast sportsbooks would adjust the number back down to 4.5, but early Monday the line held firm at minus five, with some shops even juicing the over. That movement has led to speculation the number could continue climbing in Seattle’s favor over the next two weeks. If so, the Seahawks could become the largest Super Bowl favorite since Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, when Pittsburgh closed as nearly a touchdown favorite over Arizona.
Seattle has become an easy team for bettors to support, fueled by a compelling storyline surrounding quarterback Sam Darnold and a dominant defense. The Seahawks just eliminated the league’s top offense, a result that resonates strongly with the betting public. Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to carry the label of the villain, as lingering fatigue remains from their dynasty years under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Critics also point to a perceived soft schedule and a playoff run that included a win over a career backup quarterback.
The total opened at 46 1/2 and has held steady. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL and many in the industry believed this would open at closer to 44 total points, but as it has been pointed out quite a few times the public enjoys betting the over, so there is a chance this holds until kickioff.