The New York Yankees’ season has come to a crashing end, and with it, the fantasy baseball season has also wrapped up. But as I said last week, this is when the real work begins for both real teams and fantasy managers. One of the most common questions that comes up year after year is how to evaluate stars who missed a large chunk of time. Add in an aging ace with an arm issue, and you’ll get a wide range of opinions on how to value these pitchers.
Gerrit Cole is the biggest name who fits that category, and the debate around him is only just heating up. The negatives are clear. Cole is coming off a season-long injury, which makes predicting his performance tricky. He is also 35 years old, an age when many pitchers begin to slow down or even fall off completely. It’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate had declined for three straight seasons even before the injury occurred.
That said, there are still plenty of positives. Cole will return to a Yankees team that, despite its playoff failings, provides strong offensive support. They are consistently a top-five offense in baseball, which helps boost his win potential. While his strikeout rate has dipped, he started from such a high level that he can still rank among the league leaders. Plus, because Cole missed the entire season, his ramp-up period will take place in spring training—meaning there should be minimal innings limitations once the season begins.
I expect to land Cole in many drafts simply because his perception has cooled. He might not be a top-five starter anymore, but with a full year to recover and the Yankees’ lineup behind him, I still view him as a reliable No. 2 fantasy starter with top-10 upside.