It is week 2 in the NFL and for sports bettors that means only one thing ... it's overreaction time.
While I warned you last week how the public skewed their week 1 bets to what they last watched and often overlooked turnover on rosters and coaching staffs, week 2 is the prototypical overreaction week, and the books know it. If you watched a team get absolutely blown out it's hard to get that thought out of your mind, likewise if a team looked like world beaters that image will also stick into the brains of bettors.
It's important not to get too caught up in the week 1 noise and cut through the inflated lines. One way to do that is to look at what the lines were prior to week 1 games, and where those odds will shift.
The Pittsburgh Steelers came into the season with a lot of question marks, but all of those questions were on the offensive side of the ball. The defense was back with Watt, Heyward and company ready to dominate as they have done seemingly forever. But bettors watched a 'weak' Jets offense and Justin Fields score at will on them. The total for the Steelers and Seahawks week 2 matchup was 40 before Sunday's games. Now it's sitting at 42 in most places and rising. There is already a 43 out there.
The Jaguars looked sharp under their new head coach Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence gave us a glimpse into what made teams want to tank for Trevor. Now they face the Bengals. The Bengals didn't get blasted on the scoreboard, but they did allow over 320 yards and 22 first downs to what most people believe is a weak Cleveland offense. The public also believes that there is just no way that Joe Burrow and Chase can be that bad again. So that total was 49 and now it's risen to 51 and might still go up from there. The public is expecting points.
When a team absolutely destroys another squad, you know there will be some overreaction and if you turned on any sports talk show on Sunday night that drooling over the Packers could not be contained. The Pack wiped the floor with the Lions, a Super Bowl contender, and while Washington won impressively also the Packers are the team that received all the attention.
Green Bay smoked the Lions, but peeling back the layers they actually were outgained, had less first downs, and less passing yards. Now they face Washington, on a short week, and the line is rising quickly and even jumped over a key number. The look ahead number was -2 1/2 before Sunday's games and now it sits at -4 in favor of the Packers in some spots. We'll learn a lot about both of these teams on Thursday.