When the Knicks take on the Pacers this week it should be a hotly contested series. Finding an avenue to bet in the series will be tough and we have to navigate through it to find some value, but there is value to be had.
Jalen Brunson is the lightning rod for New York and betting on his prop plays will be a popular choice this week but be cautious because the books know this and have juiced up his numbers. Brunson has been excellent this postseason averaging 29 points per game, but he has been at or below his posted game 1 total of 29 points in five of the six games against Boston.
Brunson's assists speak to the same sort of inflated lines with his assists total set at 8 for game one, yet he would have cleared 8 assists in just three games this post season.
There is some value in Brunson's rebounding and that is where we will find some interest for bettors looking to make a Brunson payoff. The Pacers are bad on the offensive side on second chance grabs; in fact they were the worst team in the playoffs at grabbing rebounds on that side of the floor. Brunson's opening game number sits at just 3 rebounds. Brunson was able to three or more boards in all but one game against Boston, and all but the opening game against Detroit. You can pair this with his over 4 rebounds at +150 if you believe in him. He grabbed 4 or more rebounds in five of his last seven games.
Karl Anthony Towns is also worth a look although his 12 rebounds posted number is already inflated. He will be the main component underneath against a bad rebounding team, and he could dominate. Against Boston he focused on grabbing the basket underneath and walked away with 12 or more rebounds in 4 of their 6 games.
If you want to make some Knick money but don't want to just straight bet New York this week, the rebounding advantage should be used to cash those tickets.