This year's Final Four doesn't feature a single Cinderella team. It doesn't have any true underdogs in the field. It doesn't even have anyone seeded anything other than #1 gunning for a title. What it does have though are elite teams competing for the championship, and a chance for us to make money on these high-profile schools.
This year's tournament has been heavily favorite leaning, and the public has done very well. In fact, favorites went 51-13 straight up during this year's tournament, that ties the most favorites winning all time. Sports book directors have said they have gotten crushed because of money line parlay favorites and that continued into the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. For the first time in history every favorite advanced in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Favorites have also won 14 straight tournament games. Now with just three games to playthings will potentially get tighter as the four teams left are so well matched up.
The last time, and only time, we have ever seen four #1 seeds advance to the Final Four was in 2008. That season neither semifinal game was decided by fewer than 15 points. So, while it makes sense that #1 vs. #1 will produce better games this weekend, it's far from a sure thing.
Entering the weekend the odds to win it all look like this: Duke: +325, Florida: +350, Auburn: +450, and Houston: +600. Some trends are pointing in the wrong direction for both underdogs Houston and Auburn. Only once in the past 15 seasons did a team with the worst odds go on to win it all. Florida has some history to contend with also because Florida opened the season with 60-1 odds to win it all. The only #1 seed with that high of odds to make the Final Four was Gonzaga at 66-1 in 2017.
While Duke is the biggest favorite to win it all they have to do so on the road. You rarely see a true road game in the Final Four, but this year Houston will get their home cooking. Houston will be the 9th team to play a Final Four game in their home state. It has helped a lot. 7 of the last 8 teams who played in this spot won their Final Four game.
Duke is the 17th team to be the favorite entering the Final Four and seven ended up winning the title, with UConn doing so in each of the past two season. To add to that, only four lost in the semifinal game before the championship.
This tournament has been dubbed a "boring tournament" by many but getting the four best teams to match up is rare and we should enjoy the fact the best will play the best to see who is really the best.