The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was like none we have watched before. Favorites ruled the day and the tournament that is usually filled with Cinderella stories and upset dreams have been replaced by stacked teams because of NIL deals and power conferences ruling the day.
In this year's tournament every single team remaining is from a power 4 conference and this is the first NCAA Tournament since 2007 with no teams seeded 11th or lower in the Sweet 16. So, like any good bettor we have to adjust and learn in order to make some money. That gives us an eye on this weekend of Sweet 16 and Elite 8 action.
The Sweet 16 is where the clock has usually struck midnight on those Cinderella hopefuls. Since 2018, favorites in the Sweet 16 have been advancing winning 26 of the 47 games. But they are 7 games under .500 against the spread, so teams are keeping the games closer than the public expects.
The #1 seeds have had a hard time in this round, and we normally see at least one knocked off. In fact top seeds are just 3-6 in the Sweet 16 over the past three season. This season all the top seeds are alive with Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston advancing from last weekend.
Houston should be on high alert if we are looking at past trends because they have lost in the Sweet 16 as a #1 seed for two years running. If history is a gauge the Gators should also be weary this weekend as Florida didn't cover their opening round game against Norfolk State, then struggled to put away UConn, not covering that number. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 against the spread and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.
We should see how powerful the SEC really is this round. In the first weekend of play all of the lower seeded SEC teams went home, while all of the higher seeds advanced. This year the SEC is 28-13 against the spread as an underdog vs. non-conference opponents. That brings John Calipari to the forefront. Coach Cal is making his 16th trip to the Sweet 16, where he’s 12-3 straight up and 4-1 straight up as an underdog.
The favorites have ruled the day and maybe there isn't a Cinderella left at the ball, but that doesn't mean there aren't chances to make money and intriguing matchups this week. The Sweet 16 offers plenty to capitalize on and the Elite 8 will have those same outstanding games because there are no lower seeds involved.