In fantasy baseball circles, there are two very different philosophies in regards to obtaining saves.
Some want the top-notch closers who are reliable not only in getting saves but also can help in ERA, K's and WHIP, while others look at the volatility of the position and decide to wait until the end for a closer in waiting who will eventually get the job.
I have always been on the side where I want an established arm.
Not everyone can stomach paying for the Emmanuel Clase's of the world.
But those who did were paid off handsomely last season.
Clase ended with 47 saves and a ridiculous 0.61 ERA. Ryan Helsley led the majors in saves with 49 while putting up great counting stats, and Josh Hader was his usual dominant self with 34 saves and over 100 strikeouts.
These back-end relievers, with a few more names, will cost a premium in drafts this spring, but if you decide to wait, there is some value out there.
Just last week Kenley Jansen signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Jansen is thought to be 'too old' and in fantasy leagues older players are always undervalued but Jansen holds some great value.
He is the sure-fire closer on a team that only has a young and wild arm behind him. Jansen reportedly took less money for the guarantee as saves. He is 32 away from having the third most all time saves, and you can be sure that the Angels want him to get there as their main stopper.
Jansen also had some pretty great numbers last season, and the underlying metrics show no reason to doubt him. The 37-year old notched 27 saves in 31 opportunities for the Red Sox last season and he had 62 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. His 28.4% strikeout rate ranked in the 84th percentile and he had a .213 expected opponents batting average. Everything but his age says this is a lock down closer that you can get later than you should.
Jeff Hoffman also falls into the realm of every statistic, which shows he can be a top 10 closer, but off season red flags will keep his price tag down in drafts. Hoffman, who has never been a closer, signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Blue Jays this winter to be exactly that, their closer.
Hoffman was electric last season with the Phillies. He had a tiny 2.17 ERA with 89 strikeouts over his 66 1/3 innings. Under the hood he also doesn't walk many batters and his whiff rate and chase rate are each ranked in the 96th percentile.
He can get his fastball up near 99 mph and while he only has 12 saves in his career, he has been used in pressure filled post season level situations without a problem.
So, why is Hoffman not being selected in the top 10 closers? The inexperience is a small factor, but the injury, or thought of one, is the driving force. Right after Hoffman was signed by the Blue Jays reports came out that two other teams had interest in signing him but his medicals were flagged as problematic. This news ran rampant through baseball media and has now taken on a life of its own.
What most outlets fail to tell you is that both of the teams who flagged Hoffman's medicals still put an offer out for the 32-year-old to come and pitch for them.
Neither team believed the flagged medicals were enough to not offer him millions and be on their team, so in the fantasy space, why should we? Let the rumors and "injury" news drive his price down and you can nab yourself a potential stud closer for a value much lower than he should be.
These are just two examples of the perception of a closer against the average draft position.
You can always wait it out and grab some low end arms in hopes they get you saves, and you can still pay up big for the Clase's of the world to give you some stability at an unstable position, but if you want pure value use Kenley's age and Hoffman's injury news against them and grab two back end starters who both could bring you to a title.