It's that time of year again where the public starts to get ready to make very public led bets and that is when smart bettors will take advantage.
The big game is of course going to be heavily bet by both the public and professional bettors alike, but with legalized sports betting exploding into 39 states over the past few years prop plays have become the new flavor of the week. It seems everyone with a microphone or who every played football has an opinion of player prop bets and every of age college kid is using their fantasy stats to see what props will hit this week.
Once again that is good for the swift sports bettor. The public loves betting the Super Bowl, they love betting prop plays, but most of all they love betting overs on player prop play. This is where you can zag while they zig. Being counter to the public isn't always a winning formula. In fact in December Nevada sports books lost the most money they have since 2012, so the public has been riding high, but with prop plays and overs it's a winning formula.
So this year why not be the Grinch that stole the Super Bowl and bet under some player props and make yourself some money, especially if you're one of the millions of people who will watch the game, but don't have a rooting interest.
The easiest under for props this year come with the player who will absolutely garner the most attention and that is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has been, and will be all over your television this week and anyone with a c-note in their pocket will know who #15 in red for the big game. That gives us a chance to look at the inflated lines and hit some unders.
Patrick Mahomes passing total number is set at 252 passing yards. While that might not seem like that much for someone who walks on water the way Mahomes looks at times, the numbers say this is an under bet. First, we have the Eagles secondary which has allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL this year, letting up just 189 yards per game. Then you have the fact this Chiefs team all season has been a defense first and control the ball attack. Mahomes has gone under this passing total in exactly half of his games this season and in both playoff games. We can also look at the last time these two met up in the Super Bowl and Mahomes passed for under 200 yards in that game.
Mahomes under 24 completions also can be tied to this play with the same data. Under 35 1/2 yard as his longest completion has hit in 10 of the last 13 games and while I won't touch his rushing stats it should be noted that the line has had a drastic move down already.
It's not just Mahomes we can bet against though as Saquon Barkely makes for a good bet against as well. Barkley is all world, but he is overpriced right now. His 112 1/2 yards rushing is a tempting under, but Barkley scares me just enough to lay off. Barkley under 25 1/2 yards for his longest rush however is certainly in play. The Chiefs will concentrate on pulling out all the stops to slow Barkley down. They might wear down but the big plays will be lacking as they put a spy on him to keep him in check. We might see a 15 or even 20 yard burst, but this number being over 25 is almost unheard of and the value is there for an under.
To close this out the five most bet plays right now for the Super Bowl are all overs. Dallas Goedert receiving yards, Xavier Worthy rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes rushing attempts and both of Barkley's rushing yards per game and longest rush in the game. If you want to be a party pooper and root against both teams, it can be profitable this Super Bowl Sunday.