Do not adjust your television sets, we have a repeat. That's right for Super Bowl LIX we will see the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs, which we all witnessed not long ago.
Not many times in Super Bowl history have we had a repeat and it has been very rare that the rosters are as similar as they will be with these two match up against each other in less than two weeks. The star names are back with Mahomes, Reid, Kelce and company for the Chiefs, while most of the same names remain in Philly with Hurts, Siriani, Brown, and cast head into the big game. Kansas City may have taken the first game but most think that the Eagles outplayed them in that one, and now they have the best player on the field in Barkley, who has looked even better during this playoff run.
With all that said let's take a quick peek at the tale of the tape, from a sports betting perspective.
While the rest of the country curses the weather in these dreary and cold months, Patrick Mahomes shines through the grey and plays his best football. In January and February Mahomes is 16-2 straight up when he is either at home or on a neutral site, like the Super Bowl. His losses came against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl and Joe Burrow in the playoffs. He doesn't even need the ultra-cold weather to make a statement because he starts heating up once the weather begins to get even a little chill in the air. Mahomes is 44-6 in November or later.
Want even more Mahomes magic stats? Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 against the spread when he is either an underdog or a favorite that is less than 3 points. He is also 17-3 in his playoff career.
While all the talk will be about Mahomes, and rightfully so, we also have the Andy Reid off of a bye week factor. No coach in NFL history has been better at using the bye week to his team’s advantage than the Chiefs head coach. His teams have close to an 85% winning percentage when Reid has more than one week to prepare. And back to Mahomes, when he has a rest of more than a week, he is 30-4.
So, we should count out the Eagles right? Not at all. There is a reason the spread is just 1 1/2 points. Over this season, the Eagles were the better statistical team. Philly's point differential was more than 100 points better, they ranked in the top six in both offense and defense while KC was 10th in offense and 12th in defense.
The Eagles were 13-7 against the spread making their backers very happy, while the Chiefs were still over bet by the public and had an under .500 against the spread record. KC also were just .500 as favorites this year while Philly was a perfect 3-0 when they were listed as underdogs.
The underdog role is notable because since 2020 dogs are 4-0 against the spread and have won three of those games outright in the Super Bowl. Underdogs are also 29-27-2 ATS in the Super Bowl all time.
They also have something, and someone, they didn't have when these two met the last time in the big game and that is Saquon Barkley. The Eagles have rushed for 39 touchdowns this season, which is the second most in a season in NFL history and it's Barkley who has changed the team dynamic. Barkley has 2,447 rushing yards, the second-highest total in a season in NFL history.
The tale of the tape shows exactly why this spread is a mere point and a half.