Several decades ago in my fantasy baseball career, I fell into a pattern of drafting Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter in several of my dynasty leagues every season. True to form, they were disappointing in almost every season I drafted them. Halladay got 18 starts with Toronto in 1999 at a nice young age of 22. And in 149 innings that season he struck out a meager 82 batters.
His ERA at 3.92 was decidedly ordinary. And in 2000 he started 13 games. And in 2001 he started 16 games. He was always a highly rated prospect with the Toronto Blue Jays and his stuff was always highly rated. But he didn’t find consistency until his 5th season when he got 34 starts and he led the American League in innings pitched with 239-1/3. Was I the owner who reaped the benefits of being patient with Halladay? Nope. I had moved on.
Four years of waiting is an eternity in fantasy baseball. Even in a dynasty league it is a long wait. I had a very similar experience with Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals at about the same time. ERA’s of 5.09/4.37/4.38/6.26/4.09 and 5.28 was what his fantasy baseball owners were rewarded with. And then the season he turned 30 Carpenter put up a 21-5 record on his way to winning the NL Cy Young Award. Both of these tall right handers became dominant starting pitchers but long after I had exhausted my patience with both of them. Is there a lesson for the rest of us to spot here? Certainly we know that some players don’t mature until reaching their 27th birthday. Although Carpenter was still pretty bad in his age 27 and 28 seasons.
There are a number of starting pitchers in my dynasty league that seem to fit the profile seen earlier with Halladay and Carpenter. And they finished 2022 as free agents. I won’t be surprised if these pitchers are the surprises of 2023, as they have each shown signs of promise but that dominant performance has eluded them. Let’s look at some of them and they ought to be available late in your draft, if not entering the 2023 season as available free agents.
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Nick Pivetta of Boston will be 30 years old for all of the 2023 season. And while his 4.56 ERA in 33 starts last year was not even above average, his 175 strikeouts in 179 innings pitched are. If Pivetta could improve his control he is a ripe candidate to become one of the bigger surprises of the 2023 season. Josiah Gray of the Washington Nationals is a pitcher with flashy stuff who will be just 25 years young for the 2023 season. He struck out 154 batters in 148 innings pitched last year. He failed to strike out five batters in every one of his September starts, showing a pitcher who was clearly out of gas never having thrown so many innings before. He struck out 9 or more batters (5) times in April through August. Keep an eye on Gray.
A number of good looking young prospects came to spring training as long shots to make their teams to start the season. And a number of them were sent down on March 14th after turning in some strong performances. No hitter was hotter than Cincinnati’s Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The 23 year old slugger went out and hit .577 (15-for-26) with 4 spring home runs. He will get called up at some point in 2023. And the Pirates had a young 22 year old catcher turn in a solid spring. His name is Endy Rodriguez and in 2022 he hit 25 home runs with 95 RBI’s in 122 games across 3 minor league levels. In need of some additional seasoning, and the defensive abilities to play other than at catcher, Rodriguez may spend some time in the infield. The Pirates made Henry Davis the #1 overall draft pick as a catcher in 2021 so if Rodriguez can play elsewhere it helps the Pirates. I like Endy Rodriguez and expect him up at least by mid-season.