The NFL's marketing machine has made their schedule release seem like a national event. Teams around the league make very creative videos and have fun with their new schedules. But, the smart sports bettor looks at the schedule and tries to find angles to take advantage of situational betting.
Sure, it's fun to see who you will be able to watch while eating a turkey leg on Thanksgiving, sports bettors are more looking into who's on a short week. When you look at the NFL season there are some things that jump right off the page.
With the new extended season bye weeks have become even more important. The Eagles, Chargers, Lions and Titans all have a bye week in week 5. That means there will be no rest after that. Something to keep in mind. Week 14 brings us six teams that will get their rest very late. That can be a benefit for playoff ready teams to take a breather and get healthy, like the Ravens, but that can also be a hindrance on teams needing a reset and a chance for coaches to evaluate. The Patriots, Commanders, and Broncos all will have new quarterbacks.
Reading more into the schedule we see that the Atlanta Falcons have a season win total of just 9 1/2 this year, yet the preseason numbers have them being favored in 13 of their last 14 games. The Chicago Bears have the easiest schedule weeks 1-10. The Bears and Steelers don't play any divisional games until after week 10, which is the latest in NFL history that a team has ever played its first division game. Six of their final eight games will be divisional games. That's an end of the year gauntlet. Jared Goff won't play a game outdoors until week 9 at Green Bay. The Lions will play a total of just 3 times outdoors all year. The Eagles play four of their final five games in Philadelphia, giving them a distinct late season edge.
Bettors have grown accustomed to the Jaguars in London and this year will be the second straight year they play back to back games there. Last season they went 2-0 in that spot, cashing as an underdog. The familiarity and less travel has to be taken into account. Christmas is Wednesday, which can throw a team's internal clock off. This will be just the third time over the past 76 years that the NFL has held a game on a Wednesday. The Chiefs will travel to Pittsburgh for this one, with the Ravens heading to Houston. Betting on a team off a bye week has become an increasingly popular bet and that means betting against the 49ers this season. The 49ers will be going against four teams off a bye week. Then there are the Bills, Browns, Bears, and Vikings who face an uphill challenge because they have to go on the road for three straight games. Teams that have had to play three consecutive road games the past two seasons are a combined 8-19 on their three-game trip.
Finally, some home town schedule quirks. The New York Jets will also show us if they can respond to the limelight with six prime time games in the first 11 weeks of the season. While the Giants will play the Cowboys twice this season, like always, but this year is different because both contests will be played on Thursday, that's only happened a total of two times in just under 100 years.