Statistics don't lie, but they certainly can lead us to some money. From the eye test this season we can all see that scoring is down across the league, but how substantially down are the offensive outputs and how can we take advantage?
Let's first start with the facts. This season's offenses and runs scored are lower than the past. Forget about the talk of a dead ball or juiced ball in the past or whatever the reasons and just focus on what is happening. In 2023 each team scored 4.62 runs per game. This year that number is 4.35. We are talking about .27 less runs per game from a year ago. Not that big of a deal right? Wrong. That means that we are seeing about 1 run less per team every 3 games, that is actually a steep decline.
To go further the MLB batting averages across the league are down by an average of about 7 points per batter. But, it gets even worse. If you remove each team's #1 average hitter that number skyrockets to almost a 10 point per batter decrease. Home runs are noticeably down as well, but the game's runs scored and RBI, or lack thereof, are the biggest red flags. In a game where they don't play small ball anymore and we find it increasingly likely to strand a runner on third base with less than 2 outs, this doesn't shock most observers.
So, how as sports bettors can we capitalize on this? Instead of looking at league wide production and just pounding every under (which the books are prepared for), why not take a look at the individual teams? The Houston Astros are the best example of a team that is just making under backers a streamline of money week after week. The Astros have cashed the under in just about 64% of their games this season. Their better than advertised pitching, and struggling offense has been a cash cow. The Rangers are in the same boat hitting about 61% unders for the year and the Atlanta Braves round out the teams in MLB that are cashing over 60% of under bets.
All these teams have the same formula. A lineup filled with superstar names that just aren't producing. Seattle, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Washington, the Cubs, Toronto and Oakland are also all above 55% to the under. On the flip side of this are teams who are hitting the overs. The vaunted Orioles offense is at the top of the list, but even they are just over 58% to the over. Next would be the Tigers, Brewers and Giants, who are all above 55% but that is it for teams cashing overs and making money.
Betting straight unders always seems profitable and for many this season it has been and will continue to be so. But, few have the bankroll to just blindly bet unders. I suggest that you keep riding the teams that have shown they can keep the number under the total this year before they make some deadline deals to correct the issue.