As speculation surrounding Joe Biden and his potential for dropping out of the race has amped up, the odds from offshore sports books and foreign book makers have shifted as well. While we can't bet on this legally in America, don't discount the volume of money that is bet on the election. It was reported that in 2020 there was more money wagered on the presidential election than the Super Bowl.
Kamala Harris has closed the gap and now is the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Harris has watched her numbers skyrocket since before the first presidential debate this year. Immediately following the debate Joe Biden's numbers tumbled and there were a slew of names that were his likely successors, but Harris was not leading the field. After the attempted assasination and multiple Biden blunders she has steadily become the favorite. Before the Republican National Convention both Biden and Harris were very close with Harris about even money. Since it was announced that Joe had Covid that propelled Harris into the driver's seat and she now sits at just under 2 to 1 to win the nomination.
Joe Biden has watched his lead flip and now he is almost a 2:1 underdog. Biden's performances since the debate have increasingly looked bad, but that visual alone would not shift the lines this greatly. More so, it's listening to the information at hand. The biggest names of the Democratic Party have come out against him and openly talked about a change. Schiff, Schumer, Obama's friend Clooney, and more have shown us the writing on the wall.
The biggest blow however was when just days before announcing that he had Covid Biden said he would consider dropping out if there was a medical reason. That seemed to be the moment when the books took the most notice that Joe Biden's odds needed to be adjusted. At some places there was a seismic shift when his illness was announced but everywhere it's available Biden is now the underdog.
President Biden did an interview with Lester Holt last week and told America that he felt the polls showing it was a "toss up" between him and Trump. But, if we listen to the sports books, not only is he not in the same realm as Trump, but he is now a distant second to even get past the Democratic National Convention.