After the DNC marched out speaker after speaker in a week's long joy fest of their new candidate Kamala Harris, most insiders believed her lead in the presidential race would grow. The betting market showed otherwise.
What was said at the Democratic National Convention might not have hurt Harris as much as what was not said, and according to many that was very little by Harris and her policy. For Democrats the DNC was a party of their ideology that was on full display from a Planned Parenthood truck outside to promises of a surprise guest who never showed up. The week's events hurt the Harris/Walz ticket as much as we have watched in a while.
Harris became the betting favorite before the event and had opened a lead over the former president by as much as books listing her at -130 in some spots. Immediately following the last night of the DNC events, not only did she lose that growing lead but Donald Trump had closed the gap making the betting odds a pick 'em nearly everywhere. That sort of shift speaks volumes about what the Democrats expected to happen during their week as opposed to what actually took place.
Quickly after that a seismic shift in politics took place as RFK decided to suspend his campaign and took the stage next to Trump to push his support for 45, and with him it was expected that many voters who were in the middle would now choose Trump. That news pushed steam in the betting market to Donald Trump regaining his lead and in some books watched it grow to the largest that Harris has ever held at -130.
The DNC was supposed to elevate the Harris/Walz ticket and make people believe in the hype, instead the betting market shifted solidly against the VIce President and once RFK stood on stage with Trump, the market exploded the other way. This was a miserable week for Democrats and those holding Harris tickets.