The year of the big dog is upon us and we have to start paying close attention to over juiced lines.
Coming into week 3, there had already been nightmare scenarios for NFL bettors across the country. When big favorites not only fail to cover but lose outright, the ripple effect can be felt across multiple different types of tickets. Not only does the public love the favorites, but they also put the big heavy juiced favorite teams in teasers and moneyline parlays, all of which crash when a big underdog loses. Ask any survivor pool participant this season how that has worked out.
Week 3 brought us another opportunity for a big underdog in the New England Patriots in prime time on Thursday night. Not only did Aaron Rodgers throw his first TD pass as a New York Jet, but that also broke the underdog curse of 2024. NFL underdogs that were by 6+ points were 8-0 against the spread until Thursday and were covering by almost 10 points per game. That was the best "big dog" start in league history.
This isn't by accident, as scoring is down across the league and we as sports bettors need to adjust. Teams have gone smaller on defense, to get quicker and combat the downfield aerial attack, and it has worked.
Passing touchdowns after two weeks was down once again, for the fourth year in a row. In 2021, there were 110 passing TDs in the first two weeks, that number dipped slightly the next season to 105, then last season crumbled to 86 and this year it was under 70.
This past week, the Browns saw the Giants win outright as a big dog, the Bucs dropped a game as a 6 1/2 point favorite to Bo Nix and the Broncos, the Raiders went down in flames to backup Andy Dalton and the Panthers, the Niners fell apart late and watched the Rams pull the upset, along with the Thursday Jets, all had closing lines of 6 or more points. The big dogs not only had another banner week, but they actually won four games outright.
We are keeping an eye on New York for week 4, as this Thursday night, the Giants are catching just under a touchdown against Dallas at home. The Jets will be laying 8 1/2 against the Broncos, who will try and pull the upset yet again, the Bengals are once again about a touchdown favorite over the Panthers while the Niners are also once again a big, actually double-digit, favorite over New England.
Big dogs continue to eat in the NFL. The question is when will the public adjust?