The big political contest in 2026 in New York State—and Suffolk County—will be the race for governor. Suddenly, it has become a three-way contest, with Elise Stefanik of upstate Schuylerville, a six-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives and, when first elected at 30, the youngest woman ever elected to the House, dropping out.
When Stefanik announced on November 7 that she was running for governor, she seemed to have a lock on the Republican nomination. She received the immediate endorsement of 56 of the state’s 62 GOP county chairs, 31 members of the state Assembly, 12 state senators, and, pivotally, state Republican Chairman Edward Cox.
Days before, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, after a strong re-election win, said he was considering a run for governor this year. He had just defeated Democrat Seth Koslow, a Nassau County legislator from Merrick, by more than 36,000 votes. Four years earlier, Blakeman won over Democratic incumbent Laura Curran by 2,150 votes.
Of being a candidate for governor, Blakeman said: “We’re looking at it very seriously. I’ve been on the phone all morning with political leaders and community leaders, and most importantly, business leaders who are very concerned about what’s going on in New York City,” referring to the candidacy of Zohran Mamdani.
Blakeman, of Atlantic Beach, subsequently announced he was running. A Republican primary seemed inevitable. The campaign organization of Stefanik, known for a sharp tongue, began blasting Blakeman.
One statement issued by the Stefanik campaign declared that she led Blakeman by 70 percent in a “hypothetical” GOP primary, including “beating him soundly on Long Island,” that she had made “the most effective attacks on the worst governor in America, Kathy Hochul,” and that Blakeman had previously donated to and supported “corrupt Far Left Democrats.”
But then, on December 19, Stefanik announced she was suspending her campaign for governor and would not run for re-election to the House this year either.
Chris Churchill, a columnist at the Times Union newspaper of Albany, wrote: “Elise Stefanik shocked much of New York’s political world by announcing…that she was suspending her gubernatorial campaign and, perhaps even more surprisingly, declining to run again for Congress.”
Churchill reported that “Stefanik told me that the challenge of unseating Gov. Kathy Hochul was always going to be difficult, but the task had become nearly impossible when…Blakeman announced his candidacy…setting up a primary that many in the GOP had hoped to avoid.”
Further, he quoted Stefanik as saying: “After a great deal of reflection and discussions with my family, it’s just not the right political time.” She and her husband have a four-year-old son.
“These are precious years in a child’s life, and they go by quickly, and you don’t get these years back,” she said. “These are some of the most formative years. So, this is a decision that we are very confident and comfortable with as a family.”
Churchill also quoted Stefanik saying: “I fundamentally believe that you’re not supposed to be in these positions for decades and decades. I’ve seen some of my colleagues who are, and that’s not what the model is supposed to be.”
But is this what her dropping out was really about?
Annie Karni, a congressional correspondent for The New York Times, wrote a piece reporting that “Stefanik was willing to be the team player with the stiff upper lip. But everyone has their limits.”
Karni cited a series of public humiliations delivered by President Trump—his withdrawal of her nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador; his Oval Office praise of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, during which he undercut her; and his refusal to endorse her in the Republican primary for governor.
“Now, at war with [House] Speaker Mike Johnson, privately livid at Mr. Trump and deeply frustrated with her job in Congress,” Karni wrote, “it is not clear whether Ms. Stefanik even has any interest in finishing her term, although people close to her said she planned to stay until the end of her term.”
Karni continued: “Her tumble from grace crystallized the limits of MAGA loyalty and the risks of building a political identity around Mr. Trump, who can turbocharge or torpedo a career—sometimes both.”
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the situation is also dramatic and relatively unusual.
Governor Kathy Hochul of Buffalo announced in 2024 that she was running for re-election. The first female governor in New York State history, Hochul says she is preparing to “fight like hell” to win another four-year term.
However, campaigning against Hochul in a Democratic primary is her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado. Relations between the two are greatly strained, and Delgado has been highly critical of Hochul.
Hochul herself ascended to the governorship in 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment allegations. In 2022, she ran for governor against Republican Lee Zeldin of Shirley, now administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the Trump administration.
Delgado is also a former member of the House of Representatives. His campaign website says he “has a vision” for “a New York that can fight back with vigilance against threats from the Trump administration.”
Newsday reported last month on a Siena Research Institute poll—taken just before Stefanik dropped out—showing Hochul with a double-digit lead over Blakeman, 50 percent to 25 percent, with 21 percent undecided. Against Stefanik, Hochul led 49 percent to 30 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
As for Delgado, the poll found that 17 percent of voters had a favorable opinion, 15 percent an unfavorable opinion, and 68 percent either did not know him or had no opinion. More next week, including my interview with Delgado.