The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award has essentially become the honor for the best player in football who is not a quarterback. The MVP has been an almost exclusive quarterback award for years. Even historic seasons from Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Michael Thomas, and last year’s outstanding campaign by Ja’Marr Chase barely received serious MVP consideration. Instead, those players were recognized with Offensive Player of the Year honors.
This season, the race initially appeared wide open, but sportsbooks are now signaling a clear favorite. According to the odds, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has nearly wrapped up the award. When sportsbooks make a statement, it is usually worth paying attention, and there may still be time to capitalize on this futures market. Smith-Njigba currently sits at -185 to win the award, a reasonable price considering his resume.
The Seattle wide receiver leads the league with 1,637 receiving yards, ranks third in touchdowns, and sits fifth in receptions. His case is further strengthened by Seattle holding first place in the division, ahead of the Rams and Puka Nacua, who has the second-shortest odds. Nacua sits near 2-to-1, but if voters lean toward his quarterback for MVP consideration, it is unlikely they would award Offensive Player of the Year to a teammate, particularly if Los Angeles fails to win the division.
Christian McCaffrey is next at +1100, a number that feels designed to entice bettors. While McCaffrey has been invaluable on an injury-riddled roster and kept his team in contention deep into the season, his statistical output has been excellent rather than overwhelming. A massive late-season surge could have helped, but San Francisco’s prime-time spotlight in Week 16 became the Brock Purdy show.
The sportsbooks are clearly telling us this is Smith-Njigba’s award, and laying the -185 feels justified.