The NFL season is just three weeks away and about this time of year we start hearing about who is excelling in camp, who is in the 'best shape of their lives' and from a betting perspective bettors start to take a look at some futures plays like the MVP award.
I have always been weary of putting too much down on a play that has no decisive outcomes. There is no statistical number to reach for the ticket to cash, and the winner is never black and white. There is a lot of opinion, and the award is subjective because it is voted on, rather than won by the traditional method.
With that said, many of you will still want to take a shot at who will be the NFL's best of the best this season. Here is a word of caution ... make sure your MVP is a signal caller and don't be swayed by a high price on a great skills position player.
Year after year we see skill position players put up gaudy numbers only to not sniff the MVP award. It happened to Michael Thomas the year he set all sorts of receiving records, as it did to Cooper Kupp, and it just happened to Ja'Marr Chase after he won the receiving triple crown. It has also happened to great suck as Christian McCaffrey and Derek Henry, just to name a few. The writers have made it very clear that the MVP award is a QB only award, and the offensive player of the year can go to the skill positions.
In fact, we haven't had a non-QB win the award since running back Adrian Peterson won it in 2012. That means that we have had 12 straight quarterbacks win the MVP. To take it further since its first year in 1957, 48 awards have gone to QBs.
With that said there can still be some value out there. The Josh Allen's and Lamar Jackson's of the world lead the way with their odds being +550 each. Joe Burrow comes in at 6 to 1 while Patrick Mahomes is listed at 7 to 1, while rounding out the single digit MVP odds is Jayden Daniels at 8 to 1 odds.
There simply is no value in the top guys. You don't want to tie up your money for the fall and winter hoping to get a small payout. But that doesn't mean there isn't some value. Jalen Hurts is listed at 20 to 1 odds in some books and that is great value for a star QB on a Super Bowl contending team. As is Justin Herbert with the same number, if you believe in Harbaugh magic. Baker Mayfield gets you back north of 30 to 1, while CJ Stroud and Jordan Love see their numbers at 25 to 1.
Nearly every QB in the league falls into the next group after that. In fact, there are 20 QBs listed ahead of the first non-QB, Saquon Barkley at 60 to 1 odds.
Speaking of high odds, Drake Maye and Bo Nix could each be worth a dart throw at 50 to 1 if you are looking for a fun long shot. Both signal callers have huge upside and teams that will let them shine.
Don't fall into the non-QB trap this year but also be diligent when getting value back for such a long-term investment.