The NFL training camps have opened up and that means that every team is 0-0.
With the camps opening you always hear the rhetoric that it's a new season and "anything can happen." While that is true, the reality for sports bettors is we have to concentrate on what we know and use that for looking forward to make the best use of our bankroll.
Getting caught up in preseason hype and coach talk is death to the average sports bettor, but it can be a great weapon to use and go against the public for the keen wagerer. You will hear a lot of talk about a player being 'in the best shape of their lives' and how determined others look. There will inevitably be a team that catches everyone's eyes and all of the media attention will be thrust upon their upside, while others will say how dysfunctional things are and the team is destined for the basement.
With that said there are some constants that sports bettors can hang on to and one of them is purely the league's desire for turnover. The NFL has never been shy when talking about their goal of parity and how every fan base should stay engaged. That means the league embraces the chaos and enjoys new teams in the playoff picture year in and year out.
It's worked. Since 2009 every single season, at least three NFL teams that were favored to make the playoffs have missed the post season. In fact that number goes up to 15 of the last 16 seasons at least four playoff favored teams don't make it, and on their way to missing the playoffs they are burning betting tickets all over the country.
This season there are 15 teams that are favored to make the playoffs, and as we just spoke about four will likely miss them. The Bills are -750, Ravens -600, Eagles -475, Chiefs -450, and Lions are two to one. After that every team that is expected to make the playoffs are under -200.
That list includes the Rams and Niners at -180, the Bucs and Bengals at -150, the Chargers just below at -145, Houston and Washington come in at -140, Green Bay is -135, the Vikings are -115, and the Broncos are barely favored at -105.
Barring a massive injury the big 2:1 favorites seem pretty secure. That leaves 10 teams left and the likelihood of four of those teams missing the playoffs are historically intact. Be cautious betting playoff futures. Ideally concentrate on team win totals, because the playoff favorites hold a big amount of cash for a smaller payout, and it's one of the volatile bets in the futures game.