Hi everyone it's Jack Thaler and I hope you enjoyed my last edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience. This week I will be talking about the question, does ADP matter?
For those of you who don’t know, ADP stands for average draft position and it is used to display what pick players usually go around so people can know where to draft a certain player. But does this really matter when you are drafting a player and how much does ADP change throughout the year?
I will focus on 3 players who took big jumps in ADP: Pete Crow Armstron(PCA), Cal Raleigh, and Ronald Acuna Jr. PCA jumped from 122 to 9 on ADP and that is because he is having an incredible breakout season. He has already joined the 20-20 club for the season and should continue to dominate in the second half, as for why his ADP was so low is because he was a young undefined player who had not quite broken out at the major league level yet and would have been a phenomenal pick at 122. Cal Raleigh went from 75 to 13 in ADP because he is having an all time great catching season. Raleigh had a good year in 2024 while hitting 34 HR’s but it was only good enough for the 75th ADP slot. In my opinion Raleigh was undervalued in ADP and should have been higher in ADP. As for Acuna, he went from 40 to 6. Acuna was put lower in ADP because of an injury which shows how injuries also drastically affect ADP because nobody knows if a player will come back the same as before they got injured. Sure enough Acuna came back and has not changed as a player and now he has been moved back up to his rightful spot.
Overall I think ADP doesn’t matter, as we have now learned injuries and a player being undervalued can drastically shift ADP. So, if you think you have found a player you think will break out then you should take him a couple rounds earlier than his ADP says and especially in the later rounds. Now for my waiver pickups of the week.
Pitchers:
Sean Manaea
Brandon Walter
Manaea had an incredible 2024 season putting up a 3.47 ERA but an oblique injury kept him out until July 13th when he pitched 3.1 innings in relief and only gave up one run. He pitched again on the 18th going 4 innings giving up 1 run but striking out 6. If Manaea gets going he is an incredible pitcher so watch out for him on the wire. Brandon Walter debuted on May 20th and although he has had a couple shaky starts he has been dominant in his last two so watch out.
Hitters:
Willi Castro(2B)
Mickey Moniak(OF)
Willi Castro has been a pretty reliable player his whole career and he has been on a tear lately but as a bonus he can play a lot of positions and usually steals a lot of bases. Ever since coming to Colorado former bust 1st overall pick Mickey Moniak has been pretty good. Recently he has been on a tear and you should watch out. I hope these waiver adds help and I hope to see you next week for my 7th edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience.