As we enter March Madness season it's important to remind fans that March Madness isn't named tournament madness for a reason. The tournament is all anyone thinks about but this week we begin the big conference tournaments and that is where the madness really begins.
You don't have to go back too far to think about the madness that some conference tournaments had. Just last season North Carolina State went into the ACC tournament with little chance to make the field of 68. They went on to win five games in a row including wins over then #11 ranked Duke and 4th ranked UNC.
Upsets aren't that prevalent early on though, especially in the ACC tournament. Favorites of 5 1/2 points or more have been a cash cow for bettors since 2015. They have gone 53-8 straight up with a cover rate of 60%. In fact, in the ACC tournament favorites have ruled the day. ACC road favorites in the opening round are hitting over 60% in the past 10 years and in the second round they hit just about 60% as well.
The Big 12 love their favorites as well, hitting 75% in the semifinal round over the last 20 games. In the Big East they also have about a 75% rate in the past decade for double digit favorites. The SEC favorites come to play when the reach the finals, cashing in 7 of the last 10 seasons.
You might ask with all these favorites is there any underdog trends that we can capitalize on this week? Well, in the Big Ten title game the underdogs have covered in 6 of the last 8 championship games. The Big East semifinals have nearly an 80% hit rate over the last decade and you can find value in the early rounds of the Big 12 where they have almost a .500 overall record, but over a 75% cover rate.
Some other good nuggets as we enter the madness include the ACC, which has had the top two seeds meet in the title game just once since 2012. That is bad news for Duke and Clemson. The #1 seed in the SEC have lost its first game in four of the past six tournaments. Auburn is on upset watch. The Big Ten has gone 16 straight tournaments without a #1 vs.#2 seed matchup in the championship game. And finally, in the Big 12 Kansas is the only team to win the Big 12 tournament as a #1 seed in the past 20 years. They have done it 7 times, but no other school has. But that doesn't mean we should expect a big upset as Iowa State is the only school in Big 12 tournament history to win the championship seeded lower than #3.
It's madness season and while your eyes might be on next week's field of 68, the madness begins this week.