As spring training has begun we are starting to see players on the field and in their new uniforms. The talk of guys being in 'the best shape of their lives' has begun and hearing the crack of the bat and whoosh of the fastball fills the air. For sports bettors that means one thing, future plays.
This is the time of year where most sports bettors can see teams roster construction and really start to assess what teams to invest in for the upcoming year. Of all the major sports baseball has proven to have the most parity, which also makes it harder to predict than any other sport.
This season it almost feels like it's the Dodgers or the field. But, we have said that before with high spending, 'super teams' that fell short. This version of the Dodgers seems like the most stacked preseason team in memory and when you look at them on paper they stack up as the best team ever. Games aren't played on paper though and a lot can go wrong between now and October.
With that said no one can argue that Los Angeles shouldn't be the odds on favorites to begin the year, again, and book makers have agreed setting them up as +400 favorites to repeat. That number has even gone to +300 in some spots and has been getting bet hard in the early going.
With all the talk about how much losing Juan Soto will hurt them the New York Yankees are still the second favorites at 8 to 1 odds to win it all. Juan Soto's new team is right behind the pinstripes as the Mets come in at +850.
That makes both the Yankees and Mets the favorites to win their respective divisions as well. The Mets have a tougher road as the Atlanta Braves are nipping on their tail to win the World Series at 9 to 1 odds and fourth overall.
The Yankees and Mets then both see a division rival tied for the next odds with the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies both sitting at 12 to 1 odds. The Orioles have been falling as they didn't address the loss of their staff ace in Corbin Burnes and you can get them at +1500 in some books while the Phillies are rising. Concerns over the backend of their bullpen don't seem to be swaying bettors off of the Phils as they are being bet heavily early on.
The Astros were sitting at 12 to 1 with those two, but the loss of Alex Bregman this week has watched them fall to +1400 in most places. That puts them just in front of the San Diego Padres, who are 15 to 1, but the rumors of the Padres potentially trading some of their key players has bettors weary and their line could shift drastically before opening day.
The Guardians, Rangers, Mariners, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks all are listed at +2500. That's pretty good value if you think one of them can pull the upset. The red Sox have re-hauled their team and added Bregman this week, the Guardians always seem to be in the mix, Seattle always has the pitching they just need some hitting, and the Rangers are not far away from winning it all and have some healthy players coming back like Jacob Degrom, who could be a big difference maker.
The Twins and Cubs come in at 30 to 1 odds and both are in weak, winnable divisions. The Cubs seem like the more likely value as they have made some off season moves to inspire confidence in them and they are the type of club who will make a big trade during the season to get a player they need to take that next step up.
The Tigers, Royals and Brewers are next at 40 to 1 odds. The Tigers and Royals are in the same division with the Twins and while it's a very winnable division, this has gotten so much better the past few years. It's not hard to imagine that the Royals or Detroit's young core break out this season and that gives this number quite a bit of value.
The Giants, Rays, Blue Jays, Reds, and Cardinals all sit at just about +5500. The Cardinals have basically said this is a lost season for them. The Giants made a move to get more hitting but they still are in a division with the Dodgers and DBacks, both who are wearing NL Championship rings over the past few years. The same can be said for the Rays and Jays, who still have to take down the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox to get into the conversation which leaves the Reds. This is a very intriguing spot for Cincy who look like they are on the verge of breaking out and in the NL Central could steal the division crown. A young, upstart team like the Reds at this price could be a worthwhile shot for those looking for a long shot.
The Pirates are 75 to 1, but you really have to have faith in their young dynamic arms to be on top of their game all season and their weak hitting to string things together for this bet.
All the other teams are as long shots as you can get. The Angels, A's and Nationals are all 150 to 1 to win it all and while the Nats and A's might be intriguing, you're better off playing them at plus money to make the playoffs rather than this crazy long shot. The last three teams are the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox. 400 to 1 odds seem tempting, but they are 400 to 1 for a reason.