When Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets this weekend the baseball world was abuzz about the length and size of the contract, and just as much talk was about Steve Cohen and his big, bold move. As a Yankee fan I said "good riddance".
Look, I know that Juan Soto is a generational talent, and his loss will be a major hole in the middle of that very dangerous Yankee lineup for years, but Soto leaving wasn't an overall loss for the bombers.
I, like many Yankees fans, for years have blamed Hal for being cheap, Cashman for constructing a bad lineup and the Yankees as a whole as looking like a cheap knock off of the Evil Empire that I grew up with, but this is not one of those cases.
Reports came in that the Yankees offer was above $700 million and might have been only a few million dollars short of the Mets base offer, but billionaire Steve Cohen was not going to be denied. Cohen bought the Mets years ago and has been spending horribly ever since. There was no way he would let his big shiny prize walk away, and it only added fuel to his fire that he could take him away from the Yankees. But, that doesn't mean that Hal and Cash failed here.
You will be able to read so many glowing and great reviews about Soto and for the first half of his contract the pinstripe fans will be upset, but this is not as devastating of a loss as it might seem.
Juan Soto is a fantastic player, but history alone should tell us to be cautious of these long, and massive contracts. Look at these examples.
Miguel Cabrera, a future Hall of Famer, has more than 3,100 hits, hit 511 home runs, drove in 1881 runs, won two MVP awards, and completed the triple crown in 2012 and signed a bad contract. In 2014, Cabrera signed an eight-year, $248 million contract extension with the Tigers. He still had two years left on his prior deal at $22 million per season when the new deal, so all in all Cabrera was under contract for 10 years at $292 million. The first three years of that deal were just what you'd expect from the man headed to Cooperstown, but it fell off quickly after that. In 2017 Cabrera hit just 16 home runs and he never again hit more in a season, and never drove in more than 75 runs. The contract became an anchor on the franchise.
Albert Pujols may have been an even better player than Cabrera. Pujols finished his career with over 700 home runs while batting .296. He has been called the best player of a generation and a top 20 all time player, but his contract was a bust. In 2011, after playing eleven years in St. Louis, the Angels signed Pujols to a 10- year, $240 million dollar deal. Like Soto he also had a kicker in the deal with a 10-year, $10 million dollar personal services contract on it as well. Pujols did not finish the contract with the Angels. He was so bad that he was designated for assignment in the final year. The first five years of Pujols’ contract he pretty good. He was never the Pujols of St. Louis but it really came crashing down after 5 seasons. In 2017 Pujols hit 23 home runs, and would never see that again. He also drove in 100 runs for the last time in his career.
Sometimes it's not only about lack of production or 'being older' that makes the contract a bust. A perfect example is Mike Trout. The superstar signed a 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Angels in 2019. Trout's issues aren't production based but it's a health issue. Trout was just 27 when he signed the deal, much like Soto, he was also a generational talent but since he put pen to paper Trout has been limited to only 266 of 648 possible games from 2021-24. That's just 41%. Trout has had a calf strain in 2021, back trouble in 2022, a broken hamate in 2023, and a twice-torn meniscus.
The Angels were at it again with Anthony Rendon. Rendon finished inside the top 11 in the MVP race four times with the Nationals and then signed a seven-year, $245 million contract in 2019. The first year was typical of Rendon as he placed 10th in the MVP race. Since then Rendon has not played more than 58 games, his high water mark for home runs in an Angels uniform is 9 and he hasn't had 35 RBI's yet.
The list can go on and on, but the pattern is clear. Giving large contracts and long years, to even the biggest superstars in the game, have proven to be detrimental to teams.
So, this is not a bitter Yankees fan's take, but rather a historical glimpse. Juan Soto is everything you will read he is, right now. He also looks destined to become a DH before 30 years old. He is now on his 4th franchise and has clearly put money above winning, which is a concern. The absence of Soto in the Yankees lineup will be felt for the next few years no matter what moves Cashman and Hal make, but if we look at the past we can also see a future where the New York Mets are trying to navigate around an albatross of a contract for the better part of a decade.