We don't often talk about non-sports things that we can bet on as professional sports bettors, but there are some exceptions. This past Thursday night was one of the exceptions because the market shifted so much.
The first 2024 presidential debate was held last week and immediately following the conclusion markets around the world watched the lines shift because of the current US president's performance. Joe Biden, was by all accounts, a complete and utter disaster on the world stage. The Biden performance, of losing his train of thought and general uneasiness watching him fumble through the questions, led many political pundits to come to the conclusion that he would be replaced as the Democratic candidate before he even makes it to the election. The book makers however were a step in front of even the pundits.
As the Biden collapse began to unfold many offshore books and the Canadian betting market were not waiting until the end of the debate to move their lines. Joe Biden's falling odds, and Donald Trump becoming an even bigger favorite was a typical response to a strong debate by one opponent against another, but it's the other moves that shocked many.
Before the debate began Donald Trump led the betting numbers as a -140 favorite. Meaning you would have to lay out $140 to win $100. After the debate he shifted to -180 in most markets, a small but telling move. Joe Biden's decline was as steep and obvious as his brain lapses. Biden fell from +175 to +450. That implies about a 15% chance that Biden will be reelected.
The most interesting move though came from the other "candidates" who all saw a large uptick in their betting numbers. Gavin Newsome led the way as he went from a +2500 underdog, to closing the gap on Biden to +700. Newsome wasn't the only name that watched his odds improve to become the next president as Obama also had some movement. No, not Barak, but Michelle Obama went from 22 to 1 odds down to 20 to 1 odds, and Kamala Harris, the VP and obvious choice to replace Biden, had the worst odds of those who were not on the debate stage, but saw them improve from 40 to 1 to just 33 to 1.
We know that offshore and Canadian markets can be volatile and move lines quickly, and this is by no means a tell-tale sign of who will be the next president, but the betting markets often represent the public and the public's sentiment here is very clear. Don't bet good money on a bad Joe Biden.