It's that time of year again, the time of year where sports bettors begin to take a good hard look into the NFL and future plays that jump out at them. In this new day in age player props and subsequently, player future props are a market that can be exploited. Normally, when taking player future bets it's wise to take under in most spots. Injuries are a big part of the game, so is usage and many other factors that allow sports bettors to project what won't happen, rather than the hope of what will.
With that said quarterbacks are one of the safer positions to project upside and health with. That leads us to an underrated asset this season in Trevor Lawrence. TLaw walked into the league with as much hype as any prospect not named Andrew Luck or John Elway. Lawrence's shine faded quickly after his disastrous coach led him to a first year mess, and naysayers are still loud after last season, but that is a good thing for finding value.
Lawrence currently sits with these odds for the upcoming season. Over/Under 3,700 1/2 yards passing, 299 1/2 yards rushing, 20 1/2 passing TDs. He also has +3000 odds to win the MVP and +2500 to pass for the most yards, and +15000 to win Offensive Player of the Year awards. Let's go over on all of those.
Now, let's take a look at the numbers, Lawrence threw for 4,016 yards last season. He threw 21 TDs, 14 picks and rushed for 4 more TDs with 339 yards on the ground. 4,000 yards make bettors feel good, but there is more upside.
Lawrence had some of the worst luck in the league last year when it came to touchdowns. TLaw saw 15 end zone targets be dropped, even half of those being caught would have propelled him close to 30 TDs. Lawrence had 25 the year before so his 20 1/2 line set this year feels like a situation where the books are completely underrating the Jags QB this season.
The Jaguars also added Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft, who will take over for Calvin Ridley. Losing Ridley is a loss, but he was playing out of position and that is Thomas's natural spot. Going back to the touchdown conversation, Thomas is a red zone beast leading all of college football in TDs last year with 17. Gabe Davis also boosters that passing attack. Combine him with Zay Jones, a healthy and motivated Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and you can see why Lawrence is set up so well.
Speaking of Lawrence himself he had multiple injuries last season and played through them. Why is this important? For one it shows that he will play through injuries and him being on the field only helps the chance to cash an over, but also it tells us that if he stays healthy he has more to give. We don't even need him to give more with his player props. If Lawrence has the exact same season as last year he will cash the over for yards passing, yards rushing, and TD passes. This is a player prop you want to grab early and reap the benefits as the season moves along.