The Kamala Bounce Makes Her The Favorite?


Presidential Map According To PolyMarket | @Polymarket | X

When a new political candidate comes onto a ticket there is often what insiders will call a 'bounce'. That means the new name garners enthusiasm and support and they will 'bounce' up the polls and show better numbers than previously thought. The same thing happens in sports betting. When a hot team makes a trade, draft pick, or especially a coaching change there is often a bounce. That bounce results in the book makers adjusting odds and knowing that the public will back the enthusiasm and bet the new hot team.

The bounce has been very prevalent in the recent presidential betting markets. Canadian and offshore sports books did not' shift the odds after Tim Walz was announced to be Kamala Harris's running mate but just days later the Harris bounce has gotten some real steam. Harris is now in a virtual tie with Republican candidate Donald Trump for odds to win the presidency.

Harris can be had from anywhere from +100 odds, with Trump still being the slight favorite at -125 to Harris in a deadlock tie for first with Harris at -105 and Trump at -105. As the election cycle moves on most insiders believe that Harris will flip the vote sometime in the next week or two and take over as the favorite. If the flip happens after two weeks this is no longer a 'bounce' but a real threat to the Republicans.

There is one offshore market that has already adjusted Harris to be a favorite in anticipation that this is no longer just a bounce but a market correction to the Vice President. No one could have seen this coming after Trump stood up and raised his hand yelling fight, fight, fight, but the markets have spoken loudly here and believe that Harris has overtaken the momentum and now has a real chance to win the presidency.

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