Week 1 in the NFL has arrived and for sports bettors that is after a long, long wait.
The NFL season brings out sports bettors more than any other sport and this year it's expected to be no different. Week 1 offers a unique situation for those who are in the know. The opening week of the season is met with the public jumping on a few key areas that professionals usually steer clear of. Whether it be the local media hyping up the public's hometown team or the mainstream media pushing the hot franchise that everyone loves, it's a time where the lines will get thrown off by perception, as opposed to reality. This can amount to as much as a 3 point difference in the perceived line vs. what the line should be.
Another trap door that the average bettor will fall into is believing that last year's results will just automatically transfer over to this season. Despite the fact that since 2002 there have been 29 teams that have gone from the worst team in the division to winning it the very next season. That is more than 1 team per season on average. The NFL preaches parity and we see that on display often as well, as many non-playoff teams become playoff eligible the very next year. In fact, there's been an average of just under 6 new postseason teams compared to the year prior since 1990. That's a remarkable turnover rate that a smart bettor can capitalize on early in the season.
Week 1 trends can be fun and informative, but it has to be noted that teams change so much nowadays that it also can be taken with a grain of salt. With that said there are a few trends that are worth mentioning. Division underdogs at home are 22-7 against the spread since 2010. Last year the Browns and Jets pulled the upset while the Colts and Giants didn't come close. This season that trend would put the Colts back in play as they take on the Texans as a 4 1/2 point home underdog.
We can add more trends to that as divisional home underdogs are 20-6 ATS since 2009. Once again only the Colts play into that number this season. Week 1 underdogs of eight or more points are 26-10 against the spread since 2003. The Patriots are the only team with a number of +8 or above this opening day, with a number at +9 1/2, and it's being reported that over 80% of the bets are coming in against them and on the Bengals.
If you like totals then this might catch your eye. 11 of the Lions’ past 12 openers have gone over the total, while each of the 49ers last 10 openers have gone under the total. The Cardinals’ last six road opening games have gone under the total. They travel to take on the Bills in week 1. And remember all those Colts leans we had for this week? Well, the Colts have failed to cover the spread in nine straight opening day games. So, yes trends can work both ways.
Also note that last season 12 of the 16 games played went under the posted total. That was the second fewest combined points in week 1 in 13 seasons. Rookie QB's also get off to very slow starts. Rookie signal callers are 17-35-1 since 1970 on opening day after last season Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson went 0-3. In fact the last time a rookie led his team to a week 1 victory was in David Carr in 2002. The Bears, Commanders and Broncos will try to buck that trend this week.
The Green Bay Packers lead the all time mark with 51 opening day wins, but as any pro bettor knows what happened during those Lombardi years has nothing to do with today. A better indication might be who plays well over the past decade. Not surprisingly the Chiefs and Eagles lead the way winning 8 of their last 10 opening day games.
Speaking of the Chiefs, the Super Bowl winner has gone 14-9-1 against the spread since 2000 on opening day. That's almost a 61% winning number and would put a smile on every bettor's face. Kansas City opens up against Baltimore on Thursday, the very first game of the 2024 season. But, the flip side of that coin might be more intriguing if you like trends. The Super Bowl loser is just 4-20 against the spread in Week 1 over the same time frame. The Niners are 4 1/2 point favorites against the Jets this week.