The MLB postseason begins this week and if history tells us anything it's that anything can happen in this 12-team tournament.
The 'tournament' which it's now called by some baseball insiders does have some trends to look at, but as we all watched just last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the unusual happens this time of year.
The season played out like we often see, and that means the sports books were right more times than they were wrong. The home teams won at about 52%, while the favorites won at just over a 57% clip. Away favorites carried the year as they were at almost 58% with home dogs at just 42%.
Totals were also pretty evenly split separated by less than 10 games all season long, to give us the dreaded 51/49 splits, or if you are even being more technical almost a 50/50 divide.
Many of the playoff format trends also don't tell us much, but a few might steer us in the right direction. Road favorites do not fare as well during the playoffs where home field advantage does become a viable asset. In fact home favorites have been hitting over 70% over the last 50 playoff games. But, even with home favorites we have to be cautious because small home favorites (under -150) have actually been under 50% for more than 5 years now.
Home teams coming off a loss have also been a money maker while home teams that lead the series have been hitting over 60%. In fact even when a series is tied they have paid off at nearly the same clip. Once again though there are pitfalls to watch for and the biggest one is home teams down in a series. Most people just blindly go with them thinking home field will push them to a win, but they are about .500 in that spot over the past few years.
Home field should be the angle again as we attack the playoffs this year, but be cautious as baseball in October is anyone's game.