As President Trump was putting his finishing touches on his recent rally at Nassau Coliseum, a new Siena poll came out showing that New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s approval ratings have tanked.
The latest Siena poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul scored a record-low 34% approval rating. Hochul’s approval rating is five points lower than Trump’s 39%.
“To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump, said Siena poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg.
Meanwhile, Trump attracted 60,000 supporters to the Nassau Colliseum at a venue that would hold just 16,000. The rest of the massive crowd watched the rally from outside with thunderous cheers and lots of enthusiasm. Thousands tailgated for hours in the parking lot waiting for the doors to open.
Siena says, “Governor Kathy Hochul has a 34-54% favorability rating, down from 39-50% in August, and her job approval rating falls to 39-56%, down from 46-49% in August. Both are low water marks for Hochul.”
Hochul’s rating was lower than Biden’s 42% even in June and has fallen further since. With falling popularity, unless Hochul shows her mettle in this year’s hot congressional races, she will surely face a vigorous primary in the next election.
It is interesting that in a deeply Democrat state like New York where Democrats have nearly a 2:1 enrollment advantage over Republicans, Democrats are in the lead in the presidential race but only by 13 points.
Trump’s popularity and GOTV influence will no doubt have a deep impact on the down-ballot races, even if he doesn't win NY. He may well pull NY Republican congressional candidates to victory on the strength of his popularity. This is something Hochul needs to worry about.
"The voters have a problem with Kathy Hochul," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. "They don't like her. They don't think she's doing a good job right now."
“New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles. In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six. President Biden won here by 23 points in 2020,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said Siena reports that unaffiliated and independent voters are increasingly unsatisfied and are leaning Republican more than ever before.
New York State Conservative Party Chairman, Jerry Kassar says, "Recent polling in this year's cycle that they're (Independents and Unaffiliated voters) are moving republican. They're the advantage for a GOP and conservative candidates this cycle. I don’t think it is universal, and I don’t think it happens every year, but this cycle Independents are looking at the effects of terrible left-wing policies.”
“Independents are siding with this cycle more with Republicans and Conservatives than they are with Democrats and it's definitely helpful to the down-ballot races. Trump’s popularity helps. The numbers for Trump in the Siena poll still show him losing NY by thirteen, fourteen points, but that is significantly closer than the election four years ago,” Kassar added
Hochul said the numbers are not in front of mind for her. "I'm concerned about delivering for New Yorkers and I have a lot of time before my next election," the governor said.
In a state with 49.22% of registered voters enrolled as Democrats, Hochul has clearly lost support with even the majority party. New York has about 14.5 million registered voters in total with almost half registered as Democrat, 22% Republican, just 5% third party, and a whopping 24% Unaffiliated. In a state with party affiliation required to participate in primaries, these voters could have a huge influence if NY ever allowed open primaries.
In 2022, when Hochul won the governor’s office with just under 53% of the vote to Zeldin’s 47.2%, Independent and unaffiliated voters clearly made a difference in a close race versus a blowout. In a state of over 19 million people, a win by just over 291,000 votes is something that deserves attention.