With Judge expected to miss significant time, Barton believes the award is suddenly wide open and sees value in several longshot candidates. His favorite, however, is a young star in Tampa Bay whose odds have yet to catch up to his potential.
Stefan Mychajliw: Tom, Aaron Judge goes down with a rib injury. Most fans think about what it means on the field. How does it impact the betting market?
Tom Barton: It changes everything. Aaron Judge was the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP at minus-130 or minus-140. People were actually laying money on him because everyone assumed he was going to win. With a two-month absence, you can pretty much throw that ticket away.
Stefan Mychajliw: So where do bettors look now?
Tom Barton: Bobby Witt is next at around 4-to-1, but his team is sitting in last place. Jordan Alvarez is around 6-to-1 or 7-to-1, but his team is near the bottom too. Historically, MVP voters don't like handing the award to players on losing teams.
Stefan Mychajliw: Who jumps out to you?
Tom Barton: Nick Kurtz at 12-to-1 is interesting. The A's play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he has the kind of power numbers that can attract attention if the team wins. But the guy that really stands out is Junior Caminero.
Stefan Mychajliw: Why Caminero?
Tom Barton: Because you're getting 35-to-1 odds on a player who checks every box. If the Yankees fall back without Judge, Tampa Bay could win the AL East and possibly finish with the best record in the American League. Caminero is the face of that lineup. He's already putting up MVP-caliber numbers and could easily become the breakout star voters gravitate toward.
Stefan Mychajliw: So what's Barton's Best Bet this week?
Tom Barton: Junior Caminero at 35-to-1 to win the American League MVP. The value is tremendous, the opportunity is there, and with Judge sidelined, the race is wide open.Barton's Best Bet: Junior Caminero to win the American League MVP (35-1).