An Amphibious Ready Group is steaming for the Iranian theater of operations, and when it arrives, the Third Gulf War enters a new stage.
This discussion does not address the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which is significant, but operating on a parallel track to the Marines heading there now.
Unlike the USS Tripoli-led ARG already in theater, which is a more conventional force that functions as a pocket-carrier strike group, the Boxer ARG is a force specifically designed to storm beaches. In addition to the up to 10 hovercraft landing vessels used to deliver the more than 2,000 Marines, it is also equipped with anti-drone laser weapon systems.
It is very much the American way of war for the military to build up for an offensive assault right in front of the enemy. During these times, it is time to talk, which is where we are now — and it does not look good.
Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Then, Monday in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters the ceasefire was on massive life support. “It has a 1 percent chance of living.”
One of the early problems in the Third Gulf War was a lack of unity of command, with U.S. forces prioritizing military targets and Israeli forces prioritizing Iran’s three estates: the clerics, the politicians and military leadership.
When Israel attacked Iran’s petrochemical infrastructure, Iran retaliated against similar facilities in the Gulf States, especially Qatar. This escalation was too much for Trump because he wanted to keep that infrastructure in place for after the war.
This dual-track approach effectively blocked Trump from negotiating a quick end to the war, in the Venezuelan model, and threatened the Iranian oil industry that Trump counts on to finance post-war reconstruction.
Now that Trump has established unity of command in his hands, there are two economic target sets that remain.
If Trump wants to choke off Iranian oil without destroying the wells, refineries, transfer stations and pipelines, he can take Kharg Island. The island, once the center of Portuguese power in the region, is the Iranian hub for loading oil onto export tankers. It is 15 miles from the coast and 400 miles from the strait.
If the strait itself is the target, there are small islands where the Iranians launch air and marine drones, as well as the mosquito boats that are harassing marine traffic and even the Navy.
There is also the Iranian naval base at Jask on the mainland.
Enter the Boxer: Although the War Powers Act, passed over President Richard M. Nixon’s veto, has never been accepted as constitutional by Nixon or any of his successors, President Donald J. Trump provided courtesy updates to Capitol Hill — and when the 60-day window closed, he sent a letter to Congress declaring that the WPA clock actually stopped April 7, when he declared a ceasefire with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The ARG is led by the USS Boxer, named for a Royal Navy ship captured in the War of 1812, and it is accompanied by USS Portland, named for the Oregon city, and USS Comstock, named for the gold mines centered at Nevada’s Comstock Lode.
The Boxer ARG left San Diego March 18 and proceeded to Hawaii, where personnel tuned up its amphibious equipment and gear. Then, the Boxer ARG steamed for Guam and Saipan for humanitarian and goodwill missions related to Saipan’s recovery from a typhoon and picking up trash on Guam beaches.
By May 1, the Boxer ARG was on the move again, transiting the Strait of Malacca and the Sulu Sea — still under the operational control of 7th Fleet, which falls under Indo-Pacific Command.
Once Boxer changes operational control, or “chops,” to 5th Fleet and Central Command, the time for discussions has ended.
It would be glib to suggest that the Marines the Boxer ARG is set to deliver will make short work of the Iranians, but fighting on islands is a Marine specialty, while the Iranian military relies on waves of foot soldiers absorbing bullets until the enemy runs out of ammunition.
In fact, since the 1988 end of Iran’s war with Iraq, the country has been keen to fight its wars through proxies, be it Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis. Its army has not taken live fire from an opposing force in more than three decades.
As a practical matter, Marines fighting for a beachhead are at a disadvantage, except for the fact that the Marines also bring with them their own Marine-configured F-35s and attack helicopters.
We have already seen that bombing alone cannot win a war, but that does not apply to the combined arms approach of boots on the ground with close air cover — that combination is lethal, and the Iranians have no answer for it.