Republicans worried about the 2026 midterms should take note—and take heart—that on the recent House vote to renew the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act, also called FISA, for 18 months without reforms, cracks may be forming.
In that vote, four House Democrats joined the House Republican leadership, as 20 House conservatives voted with Democrats in the losing cause.
Among the four was Rep. Thomas R. Suozzi, representing eastern Queens and western Suffolk County. This district is the wealthiest in New York State and the fourth wealthiest in the country. The district includes President Theodore Roosevelt’s home on Sagamore Hill in Oyster Bay, and if he were here today, Suozzi would represent the Great Gatsby.
These wealthy districts are supposed to be solid for Democrats, but Republican resilience is real and borne out by the numbers. If Suozzi voted with Speaker Michael Johnson of Louisiana and not with the otherwise united Democratic House Caucus, something is going on.
Suozzi was joined by Democrats Rep. Jared Golden, Maine-02; Rep. Josh Gottheimer, N.J.-05; and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Wash.-03.
Let’s go to the tape.
Golden won his 2024 race by 2,706 votes under the ranked-choice system Maine progressives set up to box out conservatives.
Gluesenkamp Perez won her 2024 race by four points and roughly 16,000 votes, defeating retired Army Special Forces Chief Warrant Officer Joseph C. Kent—who just left the Trump administration and could be coming back at her.
Gottheimer had the easiest time, winning his 2024 race by 13 points and 43,072 votes, but he ran as a Democrat serious about national security.
Suozzi won his race after the GOP-led ouster of their colleague George Santos, who beat him in 2022. Suozzi won his 2024 race by five points and roughly 13,000 votes.
What makes this significant is that while the mainstream media narrative suggests President Donald J. Trump is losing support and that it is automatic that House Democrats will retake their chamber, four House Democrats crossed the aisle.
House races are different from Senate races, which turn on statewide issues, tribal loyalties, and personalities. House races turn on the president—for or against. If the president or the party’s nominee is on the ballot, it drives turnout for that party’s House candidates.
If the president is not at the top of the ticket, such as in a special election or a midterm, his party’s House candidates suffer. There are midterms when the party in the White House sees turnout drop by 30 percent—maybe 40 percent. Meanwhile, the party out of the White House is motivated to claw back into the game. This is the essence of coattails and reverse coattails.
However, if House Democrats in tight seats continue to vote with Republican leadership, it could signal a trend on the ground that members of Congress are picking up—but that eludes the mainstream media.
We have five months until the midterms, but keep watching the tight seats on both sides for what is really going on.