Governor Kathy Hochul’s re-election bid may be entering more dangerous territory than expected.
A new Siena College poll shows Hochul leading Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 47% to 34%, a 13-point margin that, while still an advantage, has narrowed sharply from a 20-point lead just last month.
The seven-point shift is raising fresh questions about whether the governor’s position is more fragile than it appears.
The warning signs are subtle but significant. Hochul’s favorability (45-42%) and job approval (52-40%) remain essentially flat, suggesting her standing hasn’t improved even as the race tightens around her. Meanwhile, Blakeman, still unknown to some voters, with 64% saying they don’t know enough about him, is nonetheless gaining ground.
That combination is turning heads.
“While Hochul maintains leads across regions, her margins are slipping, particularly in New York City and among independents,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted, pointing to a dramatic drop in her city advantage and a seven-point deficit among independents.
For Republicans, the numbers are striking: a little-known challenger already within 13 points, with months of campaigning still ahead. In modern New York politics, that’s within striking distance.
The trajectory echoes 2022, when Republican Lee Zeldin came far closer than expected, losing to Hochul by just 6.4 percentage points — 53.1% to 46.7% — the tightest gubernatorial finish in a generation.
Blakeman’s path is far from assured. But the trend line is unmistakable: the gap is closing, and quickly.