Long Island’s four U.S. House seats — evenly split between Republicans and Democrats — could once again prove pivotal in determining which party controls Congress.
All 26 of New York’s House seats are on the ballot this November, though none of the state’s U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Statewide, Democrats are defending 19 seats and Republicans seven. On Long Island, the delegation is divided two and two, underscoring the region’s role as a political battleground.
Although Democrats in Albany are exploring possible changes to House district lines, the current map presents several competitive opportunities.
In 2024, the two Republican-held districts were won decisively. In NY-1, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota defeated Democrat John Avlon, 55 percent to 45 percent. In NY-2, Republican Andrew Garbarino beat Democrat Rob Lubin, 59 percent to 41 percent.
The Democratic-held seats were far tighter. In NY-3, Rep. Thomas Suozzi defeated Republican Michael J. LiPetri, 52 percent to 48 percent. The district had previously been held by a Republican, George Santos. In NY-4, Democrat Laura Gillen edged Republican Anthony D’Esposito, 51 percent to 49 percent.
Nationally, the House stands at 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, with three vacancies. With margins that narrow, even a small shift can change control. If Democrats were to win the vacant seats, the balance would tighten to 218–217, leaving virtually no room for internal divisions.
The House has been closely divided since the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 42 seats. The GOP regained 13 seats in 2020 and added nine more in 2022 to reclaim the majority.
The 2026 midterm elections are now just eight months away. Given recent voting margins and the region’s competitive history, NY-3 and NY-4 remain especially winnable. With control of the House potentially hinging on only a handful of districts nationwide, Long Island’s four seats could once again carry national significance.