The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported earlier this week that $133.8 million was wagered with the state’s sportsbooks on this year’s Super Bowl. It marked the weakest Super Bowl handle for Nevada since 2016, when $132.5 million was bet on the Broncos versus the Panthers. Nevada’s figures included both in-person and online wagering, as well as future bets that were placed throughout the year in Las Vegas. Many industry insiders expected a slower year, which aligns with declining tourist numbers in the city, but there appears to be a much larger concern for operators moving forward.
The growing popularity of prediction platforms has emerged as a significant disruptor. Platforms such as Kalshi and PrizePicks reported record Super Bowl numbers, with some estimates suggesting that prediction markets now capture roughly five percent of the legal sports betting handle. Personally, Las Vegas felt noticeably quieter than usual during this year’s Super Bowl. Whether that was due to a lackluster matchup or the increased accessibility of mobile wagering options, it was not the same atmosphere the city has long been known for.
The rise of prediction markets is very real and presents a serious challenge to traditional sportsbooks. These platforms are not regulated in the same way as legal sportsbooks and therefore do not pay the same state taxes and licensing fees. In many cases, those savings are passed along to customers through better pricing. Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in total trading volume for this year’s Super Bowl, a massive increase from last year. Stock analyst Jordan Bender estimates that prediction markets now account for approximately $8 billion in annual wagering.
Kalshi has recently outspent Polymarket in the United States by roughly 19 times and DraftKings by about 35 percent, according to Sensor Tower estimates. Prediction markets appear to be here to stay until regulations change, as more bettors shift away from the lights and glitz of the Las Vegas Strip.