The New York Mets traded for talent this week and landed one of the most physically gifted players in baseball when they acquired Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox. The issue with Robert’s talent is that it has not consistently translated into reliable production. While the upside is tantalizing and the Mets clearly needed a center fielder, the reality is that Robert remains an unfinished product, one who should make fantasy managers hesitant.
It has often been said that the best ability is availability, and that has been a persistent problem for Robert. He missed another 52 games last season, meaning he has been sidelined for 35.7 percent of his possible 810 games over the past five years. Two separate hamstring injuries last season are especially concerning for a player whose most consistent statistical contribution has been stolen bases.
Robert’s underlying metrics also raise red flags. His average hit rate declined, and he posted a five-year low in contact batting average. He swings and misses at a high rate, striking out on roughly 26 percent of his plate appearances, and he does not walk nearly enough to fully take advantage of his elite speed. Against right-handed pitching, he hit just .211. He now moves to a less favorable ballpark for home runs, and while the Mets’ lineup is stronger overall, he is unlikely to hit near the team’s premier power bats, which tempers expectations.
All of this will still tempt fantasy owners. Robert’s immense upside could lead managers to reach a round or two too early, but he cannot impact games if he is not on base or not in the lineup. He may also see fewer stolen-base opportunities in New York. Robert is a lottery-ticket player who could win leagues with his legs, but as his ADP rises, caution is warranted. In fact, Luisangel Acuña landing in Chicago may prove the better value.