Quarterback Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle as the Denver Broncos punched their ticket to the AFC Championship Game, immediately sending shockwaves through the betting market. With Jarrett Stidham now expected to start against the New England Patriots, Denver’s odds shifted dramatically. The line opened at Broncos -4.5 and was quickly bet up to -6 in some spots, reflecting both uncertainty and public skepticism. At the same time, Denver’s Super Bowl odds drifted to the longest on the board among the four remaining teams.
Stidham’s résumé explains the hesitation. Having started just four games across six NFL seasons, he is firmly a career backup. He has not thrown a regular-season pass since 2023 and owns an uninspiring 8-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jarrett Stidham is 1-3 as a starter, has not thrown a pass in a game since Jan. 5, 2025 (Week 18 last year) and has not started since Jan. 7, 2024. (Week 18 two years ago). Earlier in the week, look-ahead odds had Denver listed as a slight 1.5-point home favorite regardless of whether they faced New England or Houston. That confidence evaporated the moment Nix went down, and it is fair to question how anyone can be comfortable backing Stidham on the sport’s biggest stage. For what it's worth Jarrett Stidham's 2025 preseason line was impressive. He was 30-for-38, for 376 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. That's good for a 143.0 passer rating.
For Denver to survive, the defense must carry the load. The Broncos ranked in the top three for much of the season in several major defensive categories and have been the backbone of their postseason run. Still, recent results raise concerns. Texans quarterback Drake Maye just threw three touchdown passes against Houston’s top-ranked defense, taking advantage of poor quarterback play on the other side to earn the trip to Denver.
Can Sean Payton and a dominant defense be enough to overcome the loss of their starting quarterback? The sportsbooks have already answered part of that question. Their aggressive line movement suggests they do not believe the public will fully buy into that narrative. Now, the only remaining question is how much higher this number can climb before kickoff.