The American League MVP odds have been volatile all season, but this week they reached a fever pitch.
Earlier in the year, Aaron Judge was listed at more than -1000 to win the award. Now, despite producing one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, he sits as the underdog at +160 and it seems likely he will not win.
This week, Judge blasted home run No. 50 and briefly reclaimed favorite status at -120, pushing Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh to +130. Hours later, Raleigh hit his 60th homer and, during that same game, vaulted to -200 as the new favorite. Judge then responded with another home run while essentially locking up the batting title and helping the Yankees move into a tie for the best record in the American League. Still, oddsmakers listed him at +160.
The idea that Raleigh would win over Judge seems unthinkable to Yankees fans and to many baseball analysts. Judge currently leads the league in nearly every major offensive category. He is the only player in history to lead MLB in batting average, hit 50 or more home runs, and draw 120 or more walks in the same season. In September alone, he is batting .358 and has been intentionally walked 34 times, a testament to how feared he is by opponents.
Raleigh, meanwhile, is having an impressive year but falls short by comparison. He is hitting below .250 overall and, since the All-Star break, has batted under .200 for long stretches. While his home run total is historic, his inconsistency cannot be overlooked.
For many, there should be no debate: Judge is the American League’s Most Valuable Player. But with the “magic number” of 60 homers attached to Raleigh, oddsmakers clearly believe voters may be swayed by one statistic over total dominance.