The new sports betting craze that has hot almost everyone is betting player props. While this is exceedingly popular in the NFL and NBA, baseball player props have taken off like gang busters in the past few years.
Baseball player props is so popular now that MLB Network and even broadcasts have put up odds and given their takes and picks on what player will do what in regard to props that night. Most sports books have incentives to play a player to hit a home run, like Draft Kings which basically gives you $10 free a night to try and get a home run right, and that should tell you how tough the HR market is. But we are seeing the books inflate the hits number because of the popularity of that play.
Most bettors see a weak pitcher, or they see a player who has good numbers against a certain starter, and they pounce on that batter to get a hit. The problem with that theory is that most books have made it, so the good batters need 2 hits to get even money back on your selection. Take Mookie Betts for example who this week went up against Antonio Senzatela, the pitcher for the Rockies. Betts career numbers against him were 9 for 20 with two home runs. The problem with his prop plays were the odds. Mookie Betts to record one hit was -275. That's hardly value for hits.
There is a way to counter this though and instead of getting 2 hits, look to total bases. Total bases refer to the number of bases gained by a batter through his hits. A batter records one total base for a single, two total bases for a double, three total bases for a triple and four total bases for a home run. So, if Betts goes 1-4 but that 1 hit is a double you cash. The odds for total bases is also much more reasonable. Betts total bases that night was +120 for 2 or more.
The books are always adjusting and so should you. You might like placing bets on hits but look to total bases for the better value play.