The mock drafts in early winter tell us what fantasy owners are thinking about how teams are building for the next season. They do give us a preview of what owners think about the next batch of young prospects. But once spring training camps open, the mock drafts reflect what owners think of the first batch of injuries experienced and those players who always make the claim that they are in the best shape of their lives. An important lesson taught from mock drafts is the concept of position scarcity, and how to properly construct a winning team. But are mock drafts a forward looking tool or simply a measuring stick of what is already known. Let’s explore deeper.
If you look back at the teams that won their leagues in 2022, you find a good share of teams that had Aaron Judge win it all. And with 62 home runs slugged, of course that was. Some teams can take a sample of three players from their roster and you can’t add their total home runs up and come up with 62. If you play head to head categories format though, the 62 home runs can be overcome. After all, in a 12 team categories league , there is no 13th point. All of those home runs don’t carry that category any further if you are already leading that category. You see teams in category leagues overdue it in stolen bases and strikeouts as well. Was any of this predicted however by the mock drafts held in the spring of 2022. Oh sure, a few Aaron Judge owners will tell you they saw it coming, but they are full of it and you know better.
This is why articles written by fantasy baseball analysts who produce lists of breakouts for the upcoming season are well read. There is also a noticeable correlation between players expected to break out and the players with climbing average draft positions in mock drafts. And yet, think of all the players who broke out to new levels of performance in 2022 and no analysts wrote articles about them and mock drafts weren’t predicting it. Kyle Wright. Nestor Cortes. Max Fried. Taylor Ward. And the biggest breakout, Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider entered the 2022 season ranked as the #5 prospect in Atlanta’s minor league system. It was unclear if he was going to pitch for the Braves as a starter or a reliever. He was receiving no attention in mock drafts. Strider put up a 4.71 ERA in 14 starts at Double AA in 2021. In my dynasty league which protects 20 Keepers, he was a 6th round draft pick, the equivalent of a 26th round draft pick. Strider got his first start on May 30, 2022. He gave up four earned runs in four innings pitched and took the loss. He did strike out seven however. After that appearance, Strider dominated for the rest of the season. For 2023, Spencer Strider is being taken somewhere in the mid-30s in mock drafts and as high as the 7th pitcher overall.
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You need to run a screen in your league which sorts out all pitchers in the latest week who struck out seven batters or more. Then you need to pull out the relievers that come up and focus on all of the starting pitchers who struck out seven or more batters. Run this search every single week of the season, preferably the night of the deadline in your league to make waiver pick additions. And in a dynasty league the search will result in a host of young prospect pitchers already on another team’s roster. Don’t get discouraged. Run the search every week. And do the same search for all offensive players who stole two or more bases. Because after all, 25 weeks of baseball with two steals per week is 50 stolen bases in a season. And two home runs in a given week is also 50. You don’t need to rush out and grab every name that these searches produce. But stick them in a watch list and see if the trends continue. They sure did for Spencer Strider.