Never Nervous Matt Mervis

The story doesn’t change each year in fantasy baseball. Looking at the standings prior to June 1st each year can be a futile exercise. The baseball played in June, July, August and September will determine your league’s champion that season. But yes, the 87 stolen bases put up through 7 weeks by my dynasty league’s 2nd place team are in the books and those steals aren’t going anywhere. Those stolen bases are in the bank. And countless times you have heard me to deposit saves and stolen bases because once banked they are yours and can’t be taken away. Batting average and on base can drop and sometimes they can even crash as have mine in the late stages of May. But I have an ‘11’ in the speed category, and the league leader’s 87 is not making me quit.

I trail the league leader by a grand total of 12 stolen bases. But Jazz Chisholm is going to be out 4-6 weeks. When Chisholm returns there is no guarantee he will have a green light to steal bases. Jazz has stolen 14 bases in 7 weeks. If he is out 6 weeks, that could be 12 stolen bases that I am looking for. What could interrupt my plans? To be honest, a lot can happen. A leg injury to Esteury Ruiz would kill my chances. Ruiz pulls up at the end of Week #7 with 23 steals. He is on pace for over 75 stolen bases. The major league leader in 2022 did it with only 43 stolen bases. The rule changes enacted for 2023 limiting the number of pickoff attempts are working as expected. Stolen bases are up across the board.

Matt Mervis of the Iowa Cubs rounding the bases after hitting his first Triple-A home run Minda Haas Kuhlman

But if you didn’t pick up Esteury Ruiz in your draft, or had him stored in your dynasty league, what do I do? Last week, I mentioned David Hamilton of the Boston Red Sox as a candidate who could transform your speed totals. He stole 71 bases in 2022, and just like Ruiz he has stolen 23 bases in the current season on fewer at bats and games played. C.J. Abrams of the Washington Nationals is clocking in with only 5 stolen bases but got out of the gate very slowly this year. He has the top end speed to steal a lot more bases than he has thus far. But this is the league lead we are talking about. The team with the fewest stolen bases has 25. The team that is in 7th has 47 stolen bases. To go from 1 point in steals to 6 in steals is only represented by 22 stolen bases? Come on, David Hamilton alone could move you up 5 points in the standings. That could be the difference between winning prize fund money and not winning prize fund money.

My analysis of the dreaded save statistic is exactly the same. A top flight stolen base guy has to average 3 steals per week to lead the league. But a top flight saves guy can historically average no better than 2 saves per week. 25 weeks of baseball at 2 saves per week works out to 50 saves. That rarely happens. The league leader in my dynasty league has 21 saves. And we do have a team that has totally punted on the category and has not gotten a single save this season. But saves do come in bunches and closers are losing their jobs each and every week of the season. Some situations worth monitoring.

Some very smart analysts are picking up Nick Anderson of the Atlanta Braves in a vote of no confidence in Raisel Iglesias. I could take this plunge at any moment. It makes sense on paper. Yennier Cano of Baltimore has flashed closer like ability. But what you don’t want to do when you are trying to catch up in saves is to get bogged down in closer-by-committee situations. It’s hard to believe, but the N.Y. Yankees have a committee situation. Clay Holmes, Michael King and Wandy Peralta have all gotten into save situations and converted them into saves. Committee situations exist in Arizona, Chicago (NL), and Oakland. Some analysts are also saying to avoid the Mets and David Robertson. I think that is bad advice. Hold on to Robertson. When all is said and done Robertson will have converted over 75% of the chances for the Mets. Good fantasy baseball owners never get nervous. Have faith in Matt Mervis. He has yet to struggle with a demotion at any level of pro baseball thus far. The Cubs just DFA’ed Eric Hosmer. They are showing faith in the rookie. So should you.